NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-22.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8d4879dea6bd1a3c8bf86276752f0439f5c42cc505312a04f93f34ed846825e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,604 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Knicks | 50c | 14,646$7,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,322.78 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards | 50c | 14,583$7,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,291.9 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Knicks | 55c | 2,696$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.63 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Wizards | 45c | 2,470$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.28 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…6e63backed Wizards | 49c | 707.05$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.03 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Knicks | 51c | 586.83$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.55 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Knicks | 45c | 555.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Wizards | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Knicks | 66c | 404.72$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.28 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Wizards | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Knicks | 52c | 273.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.04 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Knicks | 48c | 231.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.23 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks | 48c | 204.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Knicks | 49c | 200.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Wizards | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Wizards | 49c | 199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Wizards | 55c | 182.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Wizards | 52c | 179.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…87eebacked Knicks | 79c | 152.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Wizards | 47c | 142$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Wizards | 48c | 131.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Wizards | 30c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…18ecbacked Knicks | 77c | 127.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Wizards | 50c | 97.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Knicks | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Wizards | 51c | 89.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed Wizards | 52c | 82.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 527 | 60%316 W · 211 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Knicks | 40c | 75.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Knicks | 65c | 67.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe12b…a340backed Wizards | 50c | 65.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Wizards | 42c | 61.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Knicks | 53c | 59.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Knicks | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Wizards | 51c | 52.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Knicks | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Knicks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Knicks | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Wizards | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Wizards | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Wizards | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Knicks | 50c | 28.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Knicks | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Knicks | 56c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-22.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-18.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-19.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-20.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-21.5)Knicks won
- Wizards vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.