NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c58373511d6c610ca16ed2fbe78a40dbcdc073dc1face7cd40db58e43980adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,099 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 16,817$8,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,576.55 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe501…5c4fbacked Over | 49c | 11,766$5,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 9c | 928.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 206 | 38.3%79 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 6c | 735.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 13c | 712.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 8c | 672.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked Under | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Under | 11c | 255.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 11c | 213.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 51c | 195.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 166.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…c342backed Under | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 10c | 116.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…fccebacked Under | 50c | 64.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Under | 43c | 50.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 39.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 34.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…0f34backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…31b0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…4fd2backed Over | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-18.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-19.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-20.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-21.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-22.5)Knicks won
- Wizards vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.