TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Xtreme Gaming78c8,591$6,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.535757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ23c6,680$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.711,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed MOUZ51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9718452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Xtreme Gaming49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6354556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Xtreme Gaming48c4,053$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.3627645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ50c4,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb20…d0bdbacked Xtreme Gaming75c3,978$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Xtreme Gaming49c3,330$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.319943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked MOUZ35c2,876$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.2129047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed MOUZ24c2,592$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.547143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ26c2,512$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.111,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…d5f4backed MOUZ51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked MOUZ51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9811839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87e0…a14dbacked MOUZ51c1,890$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Xtreme Gaming49c1,873$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.216850%34 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ad…ff2fbacked Xtreme Gaming49c1,870$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Xtreme Gaming50c1,761$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ51c1,580$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39e…fcf3backed Xtreme Gaming49c1,572$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed MOUZ51c1,569$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ28c1,268$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.982,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ31c1,236$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.351,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ4c1,060$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.842,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Xtreme Gaming49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.414652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Xtreme Gaming49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51012061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed MOUZ51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed MOUZ39c999.99$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.595052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed MOUZ54c982.63$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.6529245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed MOUZ13c902.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8497142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Xtreme Gaming49c855.22$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.164146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Xtreme Gaming49c853.06$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.064245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked MOUZ56c852.45$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.5529160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed MOUZ25c826.29$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.585935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed MOUZ51c820$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.25850%29 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbc4…91a1backed Xtreme Gaming50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed MOUZ51c786$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.7217146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ41c728.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.162650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Xtreme Gaming71c617.16$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5216821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0674…2034backed Xtreme Gaming78c528.41$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked MOUZ52c527.5$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.35251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdede…92d0backed Xtreme Gaming77c512.11$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.351283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ25c491.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.431,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ52c482.35$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8255251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked MOUZ28c462$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8130138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Xtreme Gaming72c445$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.515280.8%42 W · 10 L+8.6wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed MOUZ54c424.14$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5222945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Xtreme Gaming49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.166066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed MOUZ32c407.7$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5517740.7%72 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming49c406.12$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.1287645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked MOUZ26c400.69$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.246735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44b2…9085backed MOUZ52c400$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed MOUZ26c375.07$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5213455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed MOUZ15c367.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed MOUZ19c359.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8812720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x7a41…ea16backed Xtreme Gaming56c358$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.522147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Xtreme Gaming45c347.8$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.7217452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed MOUZ49c340$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.65446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Xtreme Gaming46c318.54$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.544055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ32c309.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.228244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Xtreme Gaming64c308.79$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0920350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Xtreme Gaming45c303$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.659644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed MOUZ24c294.21$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6127548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0b…df4cbacked MOUZ32c282.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed MOUZ54c271.95$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8515345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef35…c333backed MOUZ52c269.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407460.8%45 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1698…68e8backed Xtreme Gaming74c269.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.061266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ebd…2c43backed Xtreme Gaming75c266$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x806d…f8c7backed Xtreme Gaming76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.16560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed MOUZ53c250.94$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13341248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Xtreme Gaming50c202$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.957650%38 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Xtreme Gaming50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10014259.9%85 W · 57 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Xtreme Gaming50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10016641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked MOUZ15c199.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.146055%33 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ53c187.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked MOUZ27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e48…fc4dbacked MOUZ8c185.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf44…0bbdbacked Xtreme Gaming46c177.75$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.983351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2074…61d9backed MOUZ33c175$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.361625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ54c159.07$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd572…5510backed Xtreme Gaming45c155.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b30…5bf9backed MOUZ53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806666.7%44 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked MOUZ51c149$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.996844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27d5…51efbacked Xtreme Gaming76c144.74$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c26…affabacked MOUZ42c141.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked MOUZ18c137.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4389938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd12d…f0dbbacked Xtreme Gaming73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9914956.4%84 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd000…509cbacked Xtreme Gaming75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…9055backed Xtreme Gaming75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331392.3%12 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick76cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6633…dcfebacked Xtreme Gaming74c126$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.244341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Xtreme Gaming44c123$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.887844.9%35 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Xtreme Gaming45c121.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.667657.9%44 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Xtreme Gaming73c117.11$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2615450%77 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Xtreme Gaming43c116.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.717146.8%80 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed MOUZ55c113.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3233746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Xtreme Gaming45c112$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.61540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c7…24e8backed MOUZ52c111.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked MOUZ46c105.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4995841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed MOUZ29c102$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed MOUZ23c101.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9134063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.