TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ60c44,766$26,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,768.5342650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Xtreme Gaming40c38,646$15,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,153.755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Xtreme Gaming46c15,614$7,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,404.3233746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming39c14,326$5,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,688.882,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed MOUZ65c6,300$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,094.912851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked MOUZ64c6,278$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.0420159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ44c5,482$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Xtreme Gaming57c4,736$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.8796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ52c3,709$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.5966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Xtreme Gaming46c3,220$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.2554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed MOUZ49c2,532$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.5610741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed MOUZ58c2,200$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.992751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Xtreme Gaming43c2,066$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.1616821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Xtreme Gaming44c1,818$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.188543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ23c1,238$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.180443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ49c1,126$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.5554445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming57c1,082$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.391,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…f014backed MOUZ48c934.39$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Xtreme Gaming50c874$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4374245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ29c852.7$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked Xtreme Gaming49c809.19$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.596735.8%24 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed MOUZ39c734$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.15446.3%25 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ61c718.74$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.4360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ55c706$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ55c661.79$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.471,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed MOUZ53c630.44$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.1316142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed MOUZ61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30536054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Xtreme Gaming68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16088166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed MOUZ61c491.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked MOUZ53c453.63$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24053844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Xtreme Gaming72c414.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0825457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Xtreme Gaming74c404.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9221264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Xtreme Gaming75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3260…85ddbacked MOUZ22c370$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.36454.7%35 W · 29 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked MOUZ59c365.43$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.629548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Xtreme Gaming46c327.37$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3877458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b27…7bfdbacked MOUZ32c309.89$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24eb…75eebacked MOUZ50c304$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd679…9ccfbacked Xtreme Gaming49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1614058.6%82 W · 58 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed MOUZ53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15961548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Xtreme Gaming73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.545061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Xtreme Gaming44c246.72$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1656848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f03…7551backed MOUZ61c243.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502560%15 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Xtreme Gaming43c234.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0964149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked Xtreme Gaming73c208.32$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2526958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ59c200$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11431545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13087645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.473743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f99…2d89backed MOUZ36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Xtreme Gaming41c191.08$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6874549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed MOUZ53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b0e…eca9backed MOUZ36c185$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.74461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed MOUZ55c181.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Xtreme Gaming56c168.83$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9336051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Xtreme Gaming44c168$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2413732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ25c160.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6140014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ58c150.91$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3257455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed MOUZ54c149.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed MOUZ58c148.71$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed MOUZ28c144.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4140047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ29c121.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.991,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed MOUZ47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.411841.5%49 W · 69 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Xtreme Gaming69c108.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2234063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Xtreme Gaming68c105.86$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9746872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Xtreme Gaming57c105.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.161,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2760…ef06backed MOUZ64c103.63$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3210759.8%64 W · 43 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed MOUZ45c100.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.946634.8%23 W · 43 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed MOUZ54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x055a…d83bbacked MOUZ53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc91…67a6backed Xtreme Gaming50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed MOUZ51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5197142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7272…1b61backed MOUZ42c98.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.171216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Xtreme Gaming45c90$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed MOUZ58c89.66$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5255561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed MOUZ58c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.423050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked MOUZ26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b9…8267backed Xtreme Gaming40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed MOUZ43c73.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.597143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Xtreme Gaming68c71.26$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed Xtreme Gaming69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.78055%44 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed Xtreme Gaming62c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6513655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Xtreme Gaming49c62.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9957654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb279…2c15backed MOUZ53c62.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ58c60.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3558152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked MOUZ63c57.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.435955.9%33 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Xtreme Gaming71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3428062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Xtreme Gaming44c54.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5525248.8%123 W · 129 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Xtreme Gaming69c53.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3323957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc79…f26cbacked Xtreme Gaming49c53.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d2…83b3backed MOUZ55c51.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.311563.5%73 W · 42 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Xtreme Gaming60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2021465%139 W · 75 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bf7…2484backed Xtreme Gaming50c48.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c76…0d35backed MOUZ26c46.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4287…3d5ebacked Xtreme Gaming49c42.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.458342.2%35 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ34c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70da…68dbbacked MOUZ65c40.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed MOUZ26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.433645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe252…2071backed MOUZ52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.817149.7%85 W · 86 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.