Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96cf23d1201e5dc2a938d5d3f9ca441fbb42fe100837f42b66c037863ddf19b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,758$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 48c | 2,106$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 53c | 2,070$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.53 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 56c | 1,924$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.25 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 37c | 549.06$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.61 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 43c | 461.92$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 47c | 453.45$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.55 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 22c | 449.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 6c | 430.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 38c | 382$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 51c | 320.71$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 42c | 227.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 53c | 226$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 54c | 225.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.48 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 15c | 183.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5610…9092backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…5fa2backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 39c | 136.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 136$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 135.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 132.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…8417backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 46c | 95.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 54c | 94.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 43c | 52.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 30c | 41.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 40c | 40.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…463fbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 48c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 50c | 23.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 58c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of February?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of February?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of February?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $780 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $800 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $820 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.