Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca7261209f359044d0cb83abde33ae6e7a408a82a33314333dfe2bcb9af8c2fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 53c | 6,087$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.01 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,705$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 54c | 1,873$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 32c | 1,695$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.65 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 50c | 1,520$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.81 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,131$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 34c | 874.56$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.16 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…c3febacked Yes | 32c | 856.25$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…8c20backed No | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +669.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…4464backed Yes | 59c | 800$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 77c | 797.09$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 31c | 721.69$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.09 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f32…78cebacked No | 59c | 508$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…6dddbacked No | 46c | 468.49$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 423.77$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.8 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 36c | 372.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 50c | 334.09$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 42c | 312.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 56c | 311.75$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 43c | 298.6$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.45 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 293.4$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 4c | 282.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 41c | 253.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 15c | 252$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 68c | 229$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 79c | 211.08$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…89c0backed Yes | 79c | 203.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 200.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.43 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 22c | 186.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 24c | 170$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 63c | 155.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 145.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 51c | 128.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…990bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 74.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 65.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 59c | 61.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 67c | 56.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed Yes | 40c | 49.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f5…411ebacked Yes | 47c | 44.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…69ffbacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Yes | 52c | 38.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…31afbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 28.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4353…8a48backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 62c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ab…9a54backed No | 72c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8515…8490backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 55c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of February?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of February?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $780 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $800 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $820 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.