Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f036cea87504a4406a4d3a055b7c97c2bb27d405e0534582467ae6bd4ce8046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 34c | 2,607$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.76 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 28c | 1,452$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.57 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 66c | 1,079$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.87 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 40c | 689.47$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.91 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 51c | 676.17$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.83 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 33c | 534.84$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 68c | 500$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 66c | 466.01$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 52c | 459.27$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…f4d1backed Yes | 52c | 385$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 378.61$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.85 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 261$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.17 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 60c | 259.61$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 66c | 218.03$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 202.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 167.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 17c | 110.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…500cbacked No | 10c | 106.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9347…57dabacked No | 55c | 95.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…9a86backed Yes | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 75.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 48c | 73.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…57afbacked Yes | 64c | 68.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 61.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 24c | 47.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 41c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 25.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffa…f137backed No | 55c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed Yes | 67c | 19.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 75c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of February?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of February?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $680 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $780 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $800 end of February?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $820 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.