Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea375977ee539b47800bae67a8c72a9bdb1fc944038173a97f42220c15a85645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 6,225$3,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,232.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 47c | 4,990$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.66 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 2,216$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 1,708$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,445$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 68c | 1,290$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.64 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 61c | 1,164$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 1,136$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 37c | 828.21$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 46c | 697.06$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.82 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 692.65$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 607.14$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 545.8$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 519.72$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 53c | 472.46$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.88 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 50c | 467.47$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.65 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 44c | 460.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 56c | 452.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 424.28$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 400.36$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 53c | 355$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…f526backed Yes | 49c | 348.21$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 59c | 327$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 299.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…79e8backed Yes | 59c | 271.32$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 263.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 249.66$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…5bb2backed Yes | 67c | 246.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 243.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 44c | 228.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 40c | 226.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 41c | 224$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 53c | 205.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 205.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 165.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 35c | 162.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 53c | 162$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 47c | 159.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 157$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 146.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 56c | 145.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 144.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 56c | 143$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 28c | 141.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 139.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 134.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 131.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 47c | 130.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 121.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 120.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 116.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 40c | 115.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 106.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 106$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 73c | 91.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 91.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 41c | 85.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 42c | 76.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 50c | 68.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 37c | 68.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 66.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 37c | 64.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 66c | 60.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 58.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 57.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 70c | 57.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 71c | 56.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 40c | 55.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 34c | 55.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 75c | 53.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed Yes | 56c | 50.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 46.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 54c | 46.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 44.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 46c | 41.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 40.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 38.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.