TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mirra Andreevaof Magda Linette, Mirra Andreeva
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,879 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Magda Linette16c9,411$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.938,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a8…246dbacked Magda Linette12c9,390$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.39240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c0…ecf1backed Magda Linette14c7,199$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0097625%19 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7568…2ce1backed Magda Linette16c5,387$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.929052.2%47 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Magda Linette20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magda Linette10c4,788$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.148,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x841d…4a16backed Mirra Andreeva72c4,391$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.524770.2%33 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magda Linette19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76016825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Magda Linette12c3,725$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4479760.8%59 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Magda Linette18c3,462$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Magda Linette16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48054138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…910dbacked Mirra Andreeva80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5009740.2%39 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Magda Linette4c2,227$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.081,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Magda Linette14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28045036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Magda Linette20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40033438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Magda Linette19c1,502$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.343,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Magda Linette19c1,501$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.74,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d67…ab42backed Magda Linette19c1,250$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Mirra Andreeva80c1,197$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.867374%54 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Magda Linette1c1,090$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2080…d262backed Magda Linette19c1,056$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.297437.8%28 W · 46 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a17…5f06backed Magda Linette14c1,037$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1713137.4%49 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Magda Linette19c967.73$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8731736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Magda Linette19c947.63$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.055429.6%16 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Magda Linette14c919.35$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.641,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Magda Linette22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027732.5%90 W · 187 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Magda Linette19c881.61$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.352,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Mirra Andreeva72c766.24$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2174743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Mirra Andreeva80c695.85$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1756651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Magda Linette17c653$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.711,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Mirra Andreeva80c628.93$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.791,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed Magda Linette16c593.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7629940.1%120 W · 179 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x058d…456fbacked Magda Linette28c532.18$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Magda Linette3c518.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0521524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0d…bc18backed Mirra Andreeva79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.337638.2%29 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd3…43aebacked Magda Linette20c495.85$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.171414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Magda Linette21c484.1$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.661,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked Mirra Andreeva80c408$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.61662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mirra Andreeva75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10036661.7%226 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Magda Linette21c391.36$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Mirra Andreeva72c378.62$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.441,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Magda Linette26c370$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.823,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Mirra Andreeva80c369.28$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.861,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Mirra Andreeva78c365.32$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.371,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Magda Linette12c330.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.154,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Magda Linette19c329.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6192237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Magda Linette19c265$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3532147%151 W · 170 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Magda Linette21c232.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5049943.5%217 W · 282 L+2.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Mirra Andreeva80c222$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.439055.6%217 W · 173 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Magda Linette19c204.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.921,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Magda Linette19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Magda Linette19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Magda Linette18c197.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3685348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Magda Linette22c195.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Magda Linette20c188.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,35638.3%520 W · 836 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Magda Linette15c180.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.792,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Magda Linette10c177.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.966834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Magda Linette19c158$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0255032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Magda Linette19c147.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.058022.5%18 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed Mirra Andreeva80c140$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821856.4%123 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3f…994fbacked Mirra Andreeva80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257766.2%51 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…71e0backed Mirra Andreeva80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+28.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Magda Linette18c114.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2075350.5%380 W · 373 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed Magda Linette22c113.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9712544.8%56 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Magda Linette24c106.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.031,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdf…8116backed Magda Linette20c105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215044%22 W · 28 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Magda Linette20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014243%61 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Mirra Andreeva77c94.83$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f4…8cf0backed Magda Linette19c94.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.698351.8%43 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Magda Linette12c94.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.39520%19 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Magda Linette18c91.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.181,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a3…5b70backed Magda Linette18c91.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166432.8%21 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Magda Linette22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Magda Linette15c85.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.543618.3%80 W · 356 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Magda Linette18c82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9563537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf23a…df6fbacked Mirra Andreeva77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.351252.1%267 W · 245 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…0dacbacked Magda Linette19c79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.824032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…71c9backed Magda Linette21c72.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516258.6%95 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1112…90dbbacked Magda Linette21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515141.1%62 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Mirra Andreeva77c69.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2639035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Mirra Andreeva75c66.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8163144.1%278 W · 353 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magda Linette18c66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.836,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Magda Linette23c64.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.522,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…6e9bbacked Magda Linette22c63.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1428249.3%139 W · 143 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…4eb9backed Magda Linette19c63.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.996833.8%23 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23d6…18a2backed Magda Linette26c62.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.563748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Mirra Andreeva80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.596049.5%475 W · 485 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x626d…e570backed Magda Linette19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.452035.2%183 W · 337 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Magda Linette18c59.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.868430%205 W · 479 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Mirra Andreeva80c59.79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.966740.3%27 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d2…4a24backed Magda Linette19c59.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2952910%53 W · 476 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed Magda Linette20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Magda Linette21c52.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1148552.4%254 W · 231 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Mirra Andreeva75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7592674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Magda Linette21c50.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6833152.6%174 W · 157 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magda Linette21c50.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Magda Linette20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023742.6%101 W · 136 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c6…7db1backed Mirra Andreeva80c42.84$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd7…db07backed Mirra Andreeva80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.519251.6%99 W · 93 L-14.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mirra Andreeva80c36.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.367,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.