TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Movistar KOIof Movistar KOI, Fnatic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$308,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$374,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,684 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Fnatic33c21,910$7,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,243.0931328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bdd…23dcbacked Movistar KOI68c20,395$13,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,626.417163.2%108 W · 63 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Fnatic14c17,914$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.3366437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Fnatic26c16,451$4,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,264.1548149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2185…f90dbacked Movistar KOI63c12,000$7,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,445.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Movistar KOI64c10,805$6,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.9659952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Fnatic37c10,644$3,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,933.9821448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Movistar KOI68c10,377$7,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,294.0414757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed Fnatic1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed Fnatic5c9,703$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.4529527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Fnatic15c6,734$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.411,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Fnatic3c6,400$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Fnatic37c6,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.991,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Fnatic1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.773775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Fnatic38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.9910044%44 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Fnatic32c4,500$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Fnatic32c4,428$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.9622624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Fnatic37c4,408$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.961,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Movistar KOI62c4,191$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.4985442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Movistar KOI66c3,639$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.711,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Movistar KOI66c3,558$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.2869756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Fnatic37c3,481$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.8882352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Movistar KOI62c3,388$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.931,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Movistar KOI62c3,340$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.211,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Fnatic31c3,153$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.541,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Fnatic15c3,000$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45941347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Fnatic8c3,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23028827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37bb…453cbacked Movistar KOI75c2,793$2,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.291782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x636e…900fbacked Movistar KOI80c2,735$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.325100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Movistar KOI77c2,732$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.0711035.5%39 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ef2…79f9backed Fnatic39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-82.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07cf…964abacked Movistar KOI77c2,548$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.3413100%13 W · 0 L+4.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Fnatic38c2,501$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.181,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…07a9backed Movistar KOI77c2,453$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.781376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb8…c665backed Fnatic36c2,285$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82333143.8%145 W · 186 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Movistar KOI64c2,221$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.561,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Fnatic14c2,157$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.542,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Movistar KOI64c2,142$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.928949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9256…21a5backed Movistar KOI77c2,099$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.291181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed Movistar KOI79c2,079$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.722568%17 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Movistar KOI63c2,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75048448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Movistar KOI67c1,810$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5921,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Movistar KOI62c1,721$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.0128361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Fnatic4c1,617$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7176955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Fnatic36c1,605$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.571,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Movistar KOI62c1,600$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61313761.3%84 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Fnatic20c1,600$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9971249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Movistar KOI62c1,504$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.6227353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Movistar KOI63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55551160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Fnatic38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Fnatic36c1,500$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54695847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed Fnatic37c1,500$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54850646%233 W · 273 L+2.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Fnatic37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.991,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Movistar KOI65c1,400$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4861,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Fnatic36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007057.1%40 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Fnatic36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024939%97 W · 152 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Movistar KOI69c1,377$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.8166947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Fnatic38c1,315$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.71,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Movistar KOI64c1,252$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.7219648%94 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Fnatic37c1,200$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.041,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Fnatic36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36095951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Movistar KOI62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3801,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed Movistar KOI64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36077545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Movistar KOI62c978.41$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0149549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8f…6353backed Fnatic29c865.46$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509938.4%38 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Fnatic8c850$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Fnatic36c800.33$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1413336.8%49 W · 84 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Fnatic38c800$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30464553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Fnatic36c799.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2881,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…d3f1backed Fnatic36c790$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.42751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Fnatic31c779.02$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.681,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50e…a4a0backed Fnatic1c770.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105022%11 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c7…7203backed Fnatic5c637.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8513911.5%16 W · 123 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd045…519bbacked Fnatic32c596.88$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Fnatic2c550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0a…8b2fbacked Movistar KOI63c518.13$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.719668.8%66 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Fnatic39c512.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Movistar KOI64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Movistar KOI66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17067549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Movistar KOI69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1552,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Fnatic38c488.43$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.657947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Movistar KOI62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8750051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Movistar KOI62c470.34$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.791,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Movistar KOI65c444$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.41,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Movistar KOI68c424.45$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.861,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Movistar KOI62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15286758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Movistar KOI66c400$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13661143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Fnatic36c374.33$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7684041%344 W · 496 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Movistar KOI64c371.73$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8248951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Fnatic34c367.06$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.81,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Movistar KOI66c362.32$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1932941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fnatic19c361.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.742,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Movistar KOI64c340.81$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.116850%34 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8165backed Fnatic37c339.04$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12534844.8%156 W · 192 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Fnatic37c335.43$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1185652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Fnatic11c321.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.281,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Movistar KOI63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4636260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c06…b98abacked Movistar KOI71c310.94$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5410152.5%53 W · 48 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Fnatic39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11768557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Fnatic33c299.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9956341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.