TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Winnipeg: August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
August Holmgrenof August Holmgren, Garrett Johns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54ba…04e4backed Garrett Johns14c6,997$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.9272129.7%214 W · 507 L-41.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed August Holmgren45c4,500$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.0210358.3%60 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Garrett Johns39c3,700$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.664,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Garrett Johns45c3,623$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.886,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61a6…2a4bbacked Garrett Johns8c3,563$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.983647.2%17 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked August Holmgren61c3,253$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.4911,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Garrett Johns24c2,748$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.238,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Garrett Johns45c2,109$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.72,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed August Holmgren51c1,848$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.8340748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed August Holmgren65c1,767$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.662,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Garrett Johns47c1,758$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.924,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Garrett Johns35c1,616$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.461,40442.8%601 W · 803 L-31.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked August Holmgren75c1,603$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6194968.1%646 W · 303 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Garrett Johns45c1,600$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.752,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed August Holmgren74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.0818159.7%108 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed August Holmgren46c1,304$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.169744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked August Holmgren55c1,269$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.571,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5a…d0f0backed Garrett Johns54c1,233$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.7946855.1%258 W · 210 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed August Holmgren75c1,173$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.771,22953.1%653 W · 576 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed August Holmgren49c1,064$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.3688935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Garrett Johns54c999.99$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.69,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Garrett Johns49c841$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.8252152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Garrett Johns23c811.74$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.462828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed August Holmgren47c779$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.2836740.6%149 W · 218 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Garrett Johns46c755.1$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed August Holmgren66c710.32$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.321,03050%515 W · 515 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked Garrett Johns43c707.02$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5541758.5%244 W · 173 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed August Holmgren56c686.4$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.221,57939.8%629 W · 950 L-34.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Garrett Johns26c655.26$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.373,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa982…09f1backed August Holmgren49c654.99$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.555446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d32…ae18backed Garrett Johns46c653.2$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Garrett Johns47c615.83$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4421842.2%92 W · 126 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed August Holmgren64c602.06$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.311,05340.9%431 W · 622 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Garrett Johns25c599.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Garrett Johns43c564.29$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.141758.5%244 W · 173 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed August Holmgren74c540.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5439256.6%222 W · 170 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Garrett Johns28c497.24$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.083,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Garrett Johns25c484.79$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0922337.7%84 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed August Holmgren52c476.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.21,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Garrett Johns52c473.62$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.381,78548.7%869 W · 916 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed August Holmgren70c432.17$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.198,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Garrett Johns7c420.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2127724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed August Holmgren55c394.98$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9879855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffe…a60fbacked August Holmgren77c378.04$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9516967.5%114 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Garrett Johns27c365.96$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.812,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Garrett Johns49c363.02$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.953,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Garrett Johns22c361.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed August Holmgren44c352$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4230132.9%99 W · 202 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…a690backed Garrett Johns49c312.37$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.066254.8%34 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff0…0a65backed Garrett Johns8c268.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.287943%34 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked August Holmgren74c250.14$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.225,49848.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L+10.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked August Holmgren51c247.38$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3831547.3%149 W · 166 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Garrett Johns55c245$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.758751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Garrett Johns49c242.36$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0576355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Garrett Johns48c237.5$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142,63946.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Garrett Johns22c237.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5228543.5%124 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…7f0cbacked August Holmgren61c234.02$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5710152.5%53 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked August Holmgren75c233.4$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.492953.5%497 W · 432 L-4.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Garrett Johns18c222.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.936,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Garrett Johns26c218.62$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.157,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Garrett Johns43c218.35$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.974,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Garrett Johns47c212.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034637.9%131 W · 215 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed August Holmgren48c209.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.5425633.6%86 W · 170 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a5…2756backed Garrett Johns31c201.92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.052955.2%16 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+43.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Garrett Johns55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015749%77 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Garrett Johns34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.154,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Garrett Johns45c186.84$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.53,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Garrett Johns25c156.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.995,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed August Holmgren61c154$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0617136.3%62 W · 109 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Garrett Johns48c150.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.592,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Garrett Johns10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03654.2%562 W · 474 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6797…e0e5backed Garrett Johns55c145.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8026263%165 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Garrett Johns26c139.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.487135.4%308 W · 563 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74fc…492cbacked August Holmgren78c127.38$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0217972.6%130 W · 49 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Garrett Johns10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1289754.6%490 W · 407 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Garrett Johns10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1295655.9%534 W · 422 L+19.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Garrett Johns43c117.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.927363.4%173 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf3…4807backed Garrett Johns26c102.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f3…f871backed August Holmgren75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256251.6%32 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed August Holmgren55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.061457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed August Holmgren73c99.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9936349.9%181 W · 182 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…422ebacked August Holmgren64c99.84$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.918158%47 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Garrett Johns59c98.2$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.691,63252.7%860 W · 772 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked August Holmgren61c98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2215733.1%52 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Garrett Johns22c97.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4534854.3%189 W · 159 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea6f…6572backed Garrett Johns39c95.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1912767.7%86 W · 41 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Garrett Johns54c94.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Garrett Johns19c93.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681,38116.4%227 W · 1,154 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45f2…722ebacked August Holmgren64c92.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.033372.7%24 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked August Holmgren69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.631,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Garrett Johns57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,00049.8%498 W · 502 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Garrett Johns16c82.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1431031%96 W · 214 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Garrett Johns19c81.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2122540.4%91 W · 134 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Garrett Johns54c80.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.661,28965.2%841 W · 448 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Garrett Johns64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.252,13556%1,195 W · 940 L+41.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Garrett Johns54c79.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432,17937%807 W · 1,372 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Garrett Johns53c75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.811,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Garrett Johns46c74.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0420452.5%107 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Garrett Johns27c73.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1857841%237 W · 341 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked August Holmgren70c71.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.514036.4%51 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.