TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Academyof Inner Circle Academy, SAW
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,434 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd66…664fbacked Inner Circle Academy65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05038358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed SAW35c1,750$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.121,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle Academy77c1,458$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.366,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked SAW38c1,428$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.995,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed SAW17c1,291$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.589630.7%275 W · 621 L-64.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed SAW35c1,196$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2557641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed SAW25c1,168$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6312154.5%66 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed SAW1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed SAW23c884.48$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.062,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed Inner Circle Academy73c759.48$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.273663.9%23 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Inner Circle Academy64c651.39$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.138052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed SAW36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21676546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Inner Circle Academy67c588.3$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1926854.5%146 W · 122 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf1…d4aebacked Inner Circle Academy63c531.25$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.565966.1%39 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Inner Circle Academy61c522.18$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2512846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked SAW16c500.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.463,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle Academy68c462.42$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.877,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Inner Circle Academy66c440.91$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.918941.6%37 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x186b…8567backed SAW28c426.45$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.476333.3%21 W · 42 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed SAW37c405.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed SAW19c404.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.834,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked Inner Circle Academy78c399.98$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9920637.9%78 W · 128 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed SAW13c397.84$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.642,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d4a…c078backed Inner Circle Academy63c384.07$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5812371.5%88 W · 35 L+19.0wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+27.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed SAW35c366.42$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.057732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Inner Circle Academy66c361.94$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0645439.6%180 W · 274 L+1.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Inner Circle Academy65c330.23$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.231,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked SAW20c318.79$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.192,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked Inner Circle Academy66c299.16$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.486384.1%53 W · 10 L+11.4wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+27.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e2a…4fd0backed Inner Circle Academy61c295$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.585742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Inner Circle Academy71c288.35$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6227544%121 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Inner Circle Academy61c270.55$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4892145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed SAW37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.923146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked SAW38c262.02$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.77534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SAW18c249.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.843,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked SAW20c245.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.132,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Inner Circle Academy67c245.04$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0414945%67 W · 82 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10f…bef4backed SAW41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked SAW23c219.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.921,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked SAW19c212.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.652,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked SAW33c209.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2935131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f63…89f3backed SAW35c203.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.394351.2%22 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed SAW39c199.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed SAW21c190.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.452,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SAW23c189$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.345,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed SAW39c184.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.722,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4228…b838backed Inner Circle Academy79c165.79$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.22755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed SAW25c162.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.952,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Inner Circle Academy64c159.87$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8777351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed SAW33c154.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.812,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Inner Circle Academy69c152.51$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5121346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked SAW21c149.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.95,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4781…f6c5backed SAW41c146.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed SAW30c140.59$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0118645.2%84 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Inner Circle Academy73c138$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7845754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed SAW38c131.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508637.2%32 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed SAW34c124.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5170242.2%296 W · 406 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3561…b0e7backed Inner Circle Academy64c122.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.362352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2167…fa33backed SAW41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509248.9%45 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e5…cc65backed SAW12c118.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4722346.2%103 W · 120 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed SAW22c118.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6438131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Inner Circle Academy75c116.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.561,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed SAW35c112.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2548939.7%194 W · 295 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Inner Circle Academy70c108.37$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4118753.5%100 W · 87 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed SAW19c106.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029731%92 W · 205 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed SAW41c102.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215347.1%72 W · 81 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Inner Circle Academy68c101$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1389046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a13…4d34backed Inner Circle Academy70c100.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3711838.1%45 W · 73 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed Inner Circle Academy66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3421360.1%128 W · 85 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed SAW40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4036457.1%208 W · 156 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d7…101ebacked SAW37c99.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Inner Circle Academy65c97.8$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2476933.8%260 W · 509 L-48.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked SAW15c92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.363,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked SAW20c86.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.392,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Inner Circle Academy68c85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.791,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37d…c735backed Inner Circle Academy60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.336354%34 W · 29 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+170.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d8b…cc69backed Inner Circle Academy66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7611052.7%58 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed SAW40c74.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3084856%475 W · 373 L+31.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked SAW37c67.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.958542.4%36 W · 49 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bc…b423backed Inner Circle Academy74c66.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.31per pick57cpaid+63.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7aa0…34dbbacked Inner Circle Academy66c66.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.821384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+65.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa9cc…4d8abacked Inner Circle Academy76c65.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked SAW33c64.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4242149.6%209 W · 212 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed SAW38c62.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8730831.2%96 W · 212 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98cd…2138backed Inner Circle Academy66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.615100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked SAW21c60.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6363038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde7…89ebbacked SAW26c59.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e46…8c1cbacked Inner Circle Academy64c56$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1623654.7%129 W · 107 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Inner Circle Academy60c53.78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2819954.8%109 W · 90 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Inner Circle Academy63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6229854.7%163 W · 135 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed SAW31c46.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2737845.5%172 W · 206 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Inner Circle Academy61c46.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9535947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0936…3833backed Inner Circle Academy64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.26651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked SAW36c44.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1525650.4%129 W · 127 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Inner Circle Academy72c44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2227156.8%154 W · 117 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed SAW24c43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.322,39346.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked Inner Circle Academy67c39.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9539469.3%273 W · 121 L+31.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Inner Circle Academy68c36.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.882,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Inner Circle Academy71c32.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4174653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd85…1d60backed Inner Circle Academy61c32.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5220147.3%95 W · 106 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.