Fifa International · resolved market
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed2fed904ba9cb6a295286b53be9e24646e3b481514281724210da743a7751d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 1,174$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.88 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 79c | 787.13$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.01 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 771.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 76c | 550.93$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 70c | 460.67$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 152 | 61.2%93 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 45c | 451.86$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.34 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 58c | 354.79$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.83 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…cfdbbacked No | 60c | 320.51$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1b…a62dbacked Yes | 38c | 261.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed Yes | 36c | 249.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 238.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 225$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…b065backed Yes | 46c | 183.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 60c | 173.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 154.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 147.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 128.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4804…3f54backed Yes | 79c | 121.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…a6bebacked No | 61c | 107.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…8eaabacked Yes | 50c | 106.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 99.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Yes | 77c | 90.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 44c | 88.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed No | 53c | 83.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 79c | 79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 42c | 58.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…c315backed No | 57c | 52.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 50.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 42c | 46.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…3afabacked No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 39c | 41.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 40.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…982cbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…aadcbacked No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…362cbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0139…5444backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked No | 55c | 30.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x378f…a862backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 329 | 43.8%144 W · 185 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e28…2db0backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…19a3backed No | 45c | 26.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…17b5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…0685backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.