Fifa International · resolved market
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60b7b72ba95a1f533412133d56f4016d11dda7f07f3f3931f70bba8e6fe3de14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0705…c0febacked Yes | 25c | 454.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes | 47c | 429.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 386$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 19c | 351.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 9c | 246.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 225$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 211.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked No | 77c | 203$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb122…b065backed Yes | 27c | 185.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 149.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No | 48c | 126.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.93 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 79c | 115.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 101.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 79c | 92.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 80c | 91.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…a100backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 71c | 47.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 77c | 34.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 32.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 76c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…4256backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3afc…d167backed No | 77c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
- Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.