NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc45845bc6e498b07809688f75183ca77646a9e517b34c14531af87f41fb23d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 2,534$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.85 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 20c | 1,760$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 80c | 1,543$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.68 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 1,375$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.17 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 63c | 1,185$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.28 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 49c | 1,013$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 890.13$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.59 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 753.97$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.58 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 16c | 646.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 564.41$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.96 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 422$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.81 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 20c | 418.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 18c | 399.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 25c | 393$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Under | 59c | 359.14$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 20c | 354$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 33c | 350$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 65c | 350$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 46c | 294.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 45c | 282$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 18c | 264.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 247.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 21c | 232.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 58c | 199.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 30c | 197.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 18c | 188.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Under | 36c | 180.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 66c | 175$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +11.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 22c | 171$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 33c | 155.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 69c | 151.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 13c | 150.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 148.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 80c | 145.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 60c | 143$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 71c | 140.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 14c | 130.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 20c | 127.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 23c | 120.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 104.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 19c | 96.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 95.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 68c | 94.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 94.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 18c | 83.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked Under | 13c | 82.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Under | 45c | 81.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Over | 62c | 81.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 72c | 79.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…a5bbbacked Under | 77c | 77.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 36c | 76.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 47c | 74.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Under | 19c | 54.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 52.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 60c | 51.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 47c | 47.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Over | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 64c | 36.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…b241backed Over | 80c | 35.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Over | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Under | 59c | 32.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 65c | 31.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 41c | 27.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 66c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…8fb2backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 63c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 57c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…43fcbacked Over | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. AvalancheGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.