TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indiana Feverof Toronto Tempo, Indiana Fever
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$484,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$566,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $484,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Toronto Tempo24c165,420$39,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,628.768937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Indiana Fever76c130,000$98,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,2003351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Indiana Fever79c45,000$35,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5002951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…8daebacked Toronto Tempo27c20,684$5,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Indiana Fever74c12,234$9,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150.9440550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Indiana Fever76c11,950$9,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.3223245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Toronto Tempo24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Indiana Fever73c9,997$7,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.074766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Indiana Fever73c8,844$6,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.7814452.8%76 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Toronto Tempo20c8,093$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.6821446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Toronto Tempo27c8,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.9927449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Tempo26c7,877$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.638645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Indiana Fever76c7,000$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6803100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+81.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever70c6,964$4,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.1599548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Toronto Tempo12c6,064$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.6512144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Indiana Fever76c6,041$4,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.794967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever76c5,961$4,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.489349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Toronto Tempo22c5,595$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.644829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Toronto Tempo22c5,529$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.2936750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo19c4,696$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.831,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Toronto Tempo19c4,607$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.9910634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Toronto Tempo34c4,468$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Tempo19c3,912$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.9450952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Toronto Tempo3c3,300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9913024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Tempo26c3,048$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.750646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Tempo23c2,654$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.7583748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever77c2,493$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.0985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever76c2,255$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.141,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Toronto Tempo19c2,108$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.8719031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb07e…2b92backed Toronto Tempo23c2,041$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Indiana Fever76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Indiana Fever78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Tempo9c1,954$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3974942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Toronto Tempo21c1,942$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.8436454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Toronto Tempo15c1,833$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Tempo20c1,790$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.0437850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Toronto Tempo21c1,554$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2616633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Toronto Tempo33c1,532$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Indiana Fever78c1,524$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.187259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Toronto Tempo20c1,437$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.555431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Toronto Tempo19c1,313$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7530649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo25c1,293$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6532049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Tempo20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Indiana Fever71c1,221$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.6114346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Tempo22c1,181$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.8226147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Toronto Tempo5c1,023$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.664146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Toronto Tempo16c1,020$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.89318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Toronto Tempo10c1,012$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Toronto Tempo33c934.54$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.56437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Indiana Fever75c934$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.5736154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Tempo20c915.6$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.122951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Indiana Fever77c872$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5641145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ce…5eb3backed Toronto Tempo22c855.5$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Toronto Tempo22c841.33$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.484831.3%15 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Toronto Tempo12c813.03$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3834726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Indiana Fever76c810.58$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.8919458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Indiana Fever76c721.05$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Toronto Tempo19c707$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.158960.7%54 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Toronto Tempo22c700$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1549139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Toronto Tempo15c644.32$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8813844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Toronto Tempo20c625$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9e…a24bbacked Indiana Fever79c614.35$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.41376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Toronto Tempo17c609.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.76746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Tempo19c569.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9215654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Toronto Tempo19c537.05$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.211346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Toronto Tempo20c522.65$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Toronto Tempo19c515.94$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5518746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Indiana Fever76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Indiana Fever69c484.77$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+50%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Indiana Fever78c447.18$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.381369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-8.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Toronto Tempo21c437.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946437.5%24 W · 40 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Toronto Tempo22c429.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.583842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Toronto Tempo16c414.03$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3718844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Toronto Tempo20c402.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5815048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Indiana Fever78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Toronto Tempo23c391.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Indiana Fever76c337.25$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.942166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Toronto Tempo22c318.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Toronto Tempo25c318.01$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Tempo20c305.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.047647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Tempo20c305.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.042857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa335…5759backed Toronto Tempo26c285$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed Indiana Fever75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6716153.4%86 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Indiana Fever77c262.34$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.345457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4122967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Tempo20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012343.1%53 W · 70 L-11.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Tempo20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0cccbacked Indiana Fever75c240$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+176.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Toronto Tempo23c231$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.312152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Indiana Fever74c222.97$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.972680.8%21 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Toronto Tempo19c215.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.579460.6%57 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb6a…857abacked Toronto Tempo17c208.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358030%24 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto Tempo20c205$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110345.6%47 W · 56 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Tempo14c205$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5434753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Toronto Tempo12c201.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.234546.7%21 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16f3…e1eebacked Indiana Fever67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Toronto Tempo20c198.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.775969.5%41 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed Indiana Fever77c196.25$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff59…dc24backed Toronto Tempo8c194.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68da…37b5backed Toronto Tempo22c190.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.