Fifa International · resolved market
Cabo Verde leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec184232e4cb5ebef194fef2f5e27091e6a08c15f63e99f83c440b10cebaac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 28,315$21,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,655.79 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…c5cebacked Yes | 28c | 14,673$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,108.45 | 224 | 37.1%83 W · 141 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 27c | 8,036$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.7 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 73c | 7,345$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.22 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 6,901$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.15 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 73c | 5,279$3,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.89 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 4,693$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.66 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 20c | 4,446$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.68 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,693$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 15c | 2,552$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 326 | 56.1%183 W · 143 L | +29.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 2,240$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 2,062$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.8 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…8eadbacked Yes | 28c | 2,011$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.18 | 355 | 14.4%51 W · 304 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 28c | 1,955$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.98 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 73c | 1,613$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.25 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 27c | 1,478$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 856$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.78 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 8c | 750.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 483 | 28%135 W · 348 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 72c | 686.78$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 28c | 642.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 350 | 36.3%127 W · 223 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…067cbacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 563.11$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 29c | 539.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc41…6b74backed Yes | 19c | 513$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…b3abbacked Yes | 28c | 474.8$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 275 | 20.4%56 W · 219 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed No | 70c | 438.17$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 13c | 411.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 407.06$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 193 | 24.9%48 W · 145 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes | 17c | 388.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 626 | 33.9%212 W · 414 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 347$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 294.51$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 13c | 259.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 350 | 34.3%120 W · 230 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 373 | 20.9%78 W · 295 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed No | 74c | 246.35$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3d…85abbacked Yes | 30c | 238.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 364 | 48.6%177 W · 187 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 74c | 200.27$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 75c | 178.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 383 | 51.4%197 W · 186 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 27c | 174.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Yes | 16c | 163.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 281 | 27.8%78 W · 203 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 154$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Yes | 10c | 145.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5d…44d1backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…18acbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed No | 73c | 100.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…2b59backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 77 | 20.8%16 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 365 | 34.2%125 W · 240 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 462 | 47.6%220 W · 242 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 18c | 94.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 165 | 9.7%16 W · 149 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…ff89backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +13.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…ec62backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 78c | 65.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,459 | 53.9%787 W · 672 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a4…c659backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 459 | 49.5%227 W · 232 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 35.2%58 W · 107 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 76c | 54.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 300 | 40.3%121 W · 179 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…48a9backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed No | 74c | 38.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,313 | 48.9%642 W · 671 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 462 | 43.5%201 W · 261 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 74c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed No | 73c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 322 | 45.3%146 W · 176 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…f41abacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 257 | 48.6%125 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e60…282ebacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 229 | 57.6%132 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 276 | 63%174 W · 102 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…266dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked No | 72c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 365 | 58.4%213 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 74c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,390 | 46.3%644 W · 746 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cabo Verde leading at halftime?this page
- Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime?Yes won
- Saudi Arabia leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.