TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,595,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,595,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c112,499$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5540%0 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c58,755$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.75470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c56,670$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.671290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9383…65dfbacked Yes0c48,604$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81db…2f49backed Yes0c46,091$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.09100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc69…b1acbacked Yes0c45,076$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc6…80c9backed Yes0c44,825$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…c25ebacked Yes0c44,342$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes0c44,095$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…476fbacked Yes0c44,080$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.08110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1760…76fabacked Yes0c42,890$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46c2…611bbacked Yes0c42,692$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes0c42,460$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4680%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…d5b6backed Yes0c42,433$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked Yes0c42,289$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ef…0607backed Yes0c41,975$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.97100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb827…664abacked Yes0c41,098$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2724…7490backed Yes0c40,715$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes0c40,705$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd008…5630backed Yes0c40,692$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.69100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked Yes0c40,659$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…299ebacked Yes0c40,512$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…c174backed Yes0c40,303$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x184e…7984backed Yes0c40,230$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.23120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…c011backed Yes0c40,174$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d3…da39backed Yes0c40,173$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…1babbacked Yes0c40,057$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.06100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…d489backed Yes0c39,928$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…c36dbacked Yes0c39,705$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes0c39,292$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebe…81b7backed Yes0c38,982$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.98110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked Yes0c38,838$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes0c38,686$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.69140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17e…3fbdbacked Yes0c37,976$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…c26dbacked Yes0c37,703$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…6483backed Yes0c37,590$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13e…d47dbacked Yes0c36,985$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…5aeabacked Yes0c36,360$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.36100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…430cbacked Yes0c36,258$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe44…d604backed Yes0c36,135$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.13100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…99c5backed Yes0c36,028$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.03100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd8…38a7backed Yes0c36,007$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.01110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab58…fa7cbacked Yes0c35,729$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…2279backed Yes0c35,663$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.66110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…927bbacked Yes0c35,618$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.62120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe362…0a47backed Yes0c34,390$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ff…5101backed Yes0c34,344$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.34120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…3cf8backed Yes0c34,059$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a74…f4bdbacked Yes0c31,879$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.88100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f5…c3fbbacked Yes0c31,877$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…2e63backed Yes0c30,068$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0790%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b4…9291backed Yes0c28,862$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.86100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e5…947ebacked Yes0c28,619$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes0c28,577$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.58100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes0c28,205$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b6…d96fbacked Yes0c23,085$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8a…7af1backed Yes0c8,259$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4540…7c30backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.