Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6323626cae1b55fc66a69da66a20772693e113f6c89de21f78e0eea14a26627f

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $421,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $150,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,275 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	19,445$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	569	5.4%31 W · 538 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	18,473$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.66	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…3e9fbacked Yes	0c	13,503$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	13,269$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	10,998$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	10,240$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes	0c	6,515$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.37	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	5,680$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.51	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x147b…ad94backed Yes	0c	4,469$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,925$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.45	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe976…97c0backed Yes	1c	3,879$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	3,318$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.35	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	3c	2,897$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.7	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92f…5564backed Yes	0c	2,774$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	3c	2,643$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.87	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3307…6f4dbacked Yes	0c	2,436$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	4c	2,401$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.38	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,326$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.37	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	2,287$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	567	8.1%46 W · 521 L	+12.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	2,239$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.88	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	3c	2,129$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.84	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	2,124$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.19	652	21.5%140 W · 512 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdca5…e859backed Yes	1c	2,078$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,059$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	1,901$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.42	426	10.6%45 W · 381 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	1c	1,600$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	1,581$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	4c	1,172$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.68	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	4c	1,157$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.23	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	2c	1,131$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	181	30.9%56 W · 125 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes	4c	1,126$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.93	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x587d…e8cdbacked Yes	4c	1,118$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.79	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	3c	1,105$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.47	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,097$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.73	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes	3c	1,024$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.91	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,005$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	955.37$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	4c	878.2$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	550	22.5%124 W · 426 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-37%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	841.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	3c	831.62$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.53	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	749.72$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.14	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	612.55$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	894	18.7%167 W · 727 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	567.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	590	20.8%123 W · 467 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	562.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	894	17.1%153 W · 741 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes	4c	561.41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	3c	525.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4958…f548backed Yes	5c	415.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea3…36d2backed Yes	7c	405.2$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.21	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	6c	399.95$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	131	13.7%18 W · 113 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	395.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf2…73adbacked Yes	7c	387.62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.21	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3585…6eadbacked Yes	3c	384.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-33%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	364.78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba7…8ca5backed Yes	6c	291.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5e…a267backed Yes	4c	287.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event