Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb18ef387b792935c98b50a6a31b9bda651d1c1209d6c471a2fde6aa0bf8cd35

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $366,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $110,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,586 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	8,236$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.19	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	7,405$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.85	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	6,821$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	6,538$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.39	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	1c	6,396$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.7	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2c…a07dbacked Yes	1c	6,340$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.04	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	4,835$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.53	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	4,798$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.28	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	4,380$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.88	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,999$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	3,360$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes	2c	3,164$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.12	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	3,051$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.34	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	3,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.68	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	3c	2,987$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.05	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	2,860$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.8	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	0c	2,717$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	4c	2,630$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.62	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf536…2006backed Yes	1c	2,603$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	3c	2,567$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.88	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,436$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.17	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,323$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	2c	2,300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.1	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	2,131$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.37	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	4c	2,032$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.14	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	1,990$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.95	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	1,900$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	1,863$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes	6c	1,782$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.41	130	31.5%41 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,689$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.94	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,672$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b83…be04backed Yes	3c	1,662$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.61	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,633$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.94	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	2c	1,575$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	1,520$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.15	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,471$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	3c	1,464$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.29	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,423$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	1,283$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed Yes	4c	1,265$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d27…94c9backed Yes	4c	1,242$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.63	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,169$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	1,166$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes	5c	996.32$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.65	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	3c	975.76$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	3c	947.81$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	2c	938.1$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	914.81$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	5c	904.55$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.73	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	3c	894.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.56	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	864$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.57	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	850$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	800.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	800.32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	735.68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	4c	734.01$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	3c	700$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	699.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes	3c	584.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f6…f0d9backed Yes	3c	579$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Yes	6c	506.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	420.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb015…42c3backed Yes	5c	383.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	71	14.1%10 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…afd5backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	69	17.4%12 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	299.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bb…0ef8backed Yes	7c	269.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes	4c	235.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	6c	166.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event