Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116b5beb000287c5ed36f2f6014a7460c16bfdb3aeeb1c97e20723f375cf58b1

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $72,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa7a0…bdf6backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	12.5%11 W · 77 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	7,170$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.26	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	6,826$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.25	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	5,102$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.41	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	4,979$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.21	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	4,550$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.51	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	2c	3,902$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.01	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,897$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.67	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,856$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes	1c	3,493$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.77	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	1c	3,392$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.22	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf536…2006backed Yes	1c	3,146$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	3,092$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.16	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…5078backed Yes	2c	3,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	0c	2,700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	2,356$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,230$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	1,999$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.07	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	1,950$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.66	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b83…be04backed Yes	2c	1,827$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.95	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,729$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes	5c	1,703$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.55	130	31.5%41 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,644$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,601$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,589$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.9	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	1,527$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,449$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.82	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes	2c	1,418$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.28	128	8.6%11 W · 117 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,383$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	1,359$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,317$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	2c	1,249$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	105	14.3%15 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,239$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336f…820abacked Yes	2c	1,174$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	2c	1,136$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,109$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	1c	1,094$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	3c	1,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…3b1ebacked Yes	4c	999.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	2c	947.31$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6e…974fbacked Yes	2c	917$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	2c	868.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	850$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	3c	702.35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76b…e02abacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	108	6.5%7 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	3c	475.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	3c	443.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bb…0ef8backed Yes	6c	305.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	6c	181.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	6c	181.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event