World Politics · resolved market
Will Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef10e7ae7878458a7710e35fb238259124d80dd188f60a7d3340b94ef48e4f43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 31c | 1,941$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.09 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,772$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…a862backed Yes | 62c | 1,157$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 60c | 662$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.46 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 67c | 563$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.95 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 8c | 548.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 46c | 540$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.3 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 69c | 464$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.3 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 38c | 462.95$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.03 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 369.15$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 33c | 308$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 307.18$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 290$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 250.1$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 67c | 228.45$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 31c | 226.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…1d03backed No | 39c | 225.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990d…5463backed Yes | 62c | 218.29$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…f30dbacked Yes | 61c | 211.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…906fbacked No | 37c | 204.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 65c | 202.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2859…88a0backed Yes | 63c | 175.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 69c | 144.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 20c | 142.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 71c | 120.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed No | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 70c | 109.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 43c | 101.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 52c | 89.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked Yes | 65c | 84.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 63c | 61.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked Yes | 49c | 60.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…a83dbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Yes | 69c | 44.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -58%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb197…1585backed Yes | 63c | 43.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b0f6backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 38c | 33.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…eeecbacked Yes | 62c | 32.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…f8f7backed Yes | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651e…6ab7backed Yes | 44c | 23.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 68c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1c…8cb6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdba…bec5backed No | 69c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?this page
- Will APB Súmate win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
- Will MAS‑IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
- Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?Yes won
- Will Revolutionary Left Front win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
- Will Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.