World Politics · resolved market
Will Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa54b41237556fd5a8a909e50d1af5b55a26d1d677fdaa1ad08747e7870120971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 38c | 2,876$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.3 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 58c | 1,941$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.43 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 37c | 1,746$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.27 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 61c | 1,151$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.01 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 63c | 901.54$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.51 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 41c | 653.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 615.01$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 37c | 573.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 443.25$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.49 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d301backed Yes | 61c | 330$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 64c | 308$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 56c | 275.09$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes | 64c | 273$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 60c | 250$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 64c | 244.79$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 240.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 39c | 221.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…e1a8backed Yes | 64c | 191.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1be…5409backed Yes | 64c | 186.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 45c | 179.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 49c | 176.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…0768backed Yes | 64c | 155.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…14b0backed Yes | 50c | 149.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…3e67backed No | 53c | 141.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 140.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 64c | 130$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…4d98backed Yes | 64c | 124.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…9032backed Yes | 48c | 104.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…caf3backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 62c | 94.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 36c | 89.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3049…7825backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…4f83backed Yes | 66c | 75.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062c…2862backed Yes | 64c | 73.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…295dbacked Yes | 62c | 70.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…06c7backed Yes | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…11f0backed Yes | 65c | 65.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…b15ebacked Yes | 40c | 62.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…fbf8backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 45c | 60.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…270ebacked Yes | 63c | 53.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…dad5backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 43.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…c999backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…6eb5backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…1deebacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a2…6be0backed Yes | 64c | 28.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 43c | 28.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0b…5b89backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…a6d2backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…1bc3backed Yes | 48c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4b…4998backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…b339backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…d796backed Yes | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd46…485bbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…bbcebacked Yes | 63c | 19.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…33acbacked Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…260cbacked Yes | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…56b9backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Unity win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?this page
- Will APB Súmate win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
- Will Libre win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
- Will MAS‑IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
- Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?Yes won
- Will Revolutionary Left Front win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.