Earnings · resolved market
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff2ee7e904e396c3a7208539f0f15e4234e87809dea07f87e8cf9ced2662846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 77c | 4,769$3,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.06 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 27c | 2,974$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.97 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed No | 78c | 2,851$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.64 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,119$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,327$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 29c | 1,020$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xface…9d17backed No | 74c | 816.86$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 38c | 799.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.84 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 19c | 797.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 760.82$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.21 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 53c | 638.28$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.95 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…d98bbacked No | 71c | 599.99$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed No | 70c | 552.75$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.78 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 24c | 417.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…fc4abacked Yes | 22c | 407.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 22c | 399.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 335.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…1b00backed Yes | 31c | 323.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 29c | 278.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…b3a5backed Yes | 17c | 273.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 78c | 255.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 31c | 243.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 40c | 237.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c8…b9f7backed Yes | 26c | 223.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 199.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 60c | 187.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7c6dbacked No | 69c | 144.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 61c | 139.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 29c | 134.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 75c | 129.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 31c | 127.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 33c | 122.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 21c | 116.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d06…81edbacked Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e1…031fbacked Yes | 22c | 109.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…f119backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…32f8backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…98c5backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…72f5backed No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 94.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…42e3backed Yes | 31c | 81.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 67c | 77.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 44c | 73.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed Yes | 34c | 73.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 66c | 50.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ddeebacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…3311backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…bbccbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 32c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd39a…4c10backed Yes | 43c | 30.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 57c | 30.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…2bedbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…5144backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…121abacked No | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf42…2448backed No | 77c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.