Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff8e8551a95866a07f8f28038fc0b97a5b4a8dbc29ca85adad01fc200e9dfcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Yes | 3c | 23,351$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.01 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 5c | 10,933$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.88 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…a57bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,719$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 4,611$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.68 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…27cbbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 176 | 36.4%64 W · 112 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 4c | 3,566$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 783 | 17.4%136 W · 647 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…d2e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,287$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…ab45backed Yes | 5c | 2,183$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…8eadbacked Yes | 4c | 2,095$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 355 | 14.4%51 W · 304 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,984$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…0152backed Yes | 5c | 1,917$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 31.1%52 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…ef80backed Yes | 5c | 1,910$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,743$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f102backed Yes | 4c | 1,480$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 564 | 10.5%59 W · 505 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,244$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 4c | 1,232$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…6f6bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,163$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 51 | 3.9%2 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…a99abacked Yes | 5c | 937$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb3…4fbcbacked Yes | 5c | 833.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c6aabacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 4c | 703.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…7b07backed Yes | 4c | 655.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…755bbacked Yes | 3c | 572.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 5c | 514.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 5c | 423.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 324 | 22.5%73 W · 251 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…9fa8backed Yes | 5c | 421.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…efa7backed Yes | 5c | 377.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…6cebbacked Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 17.1%26 W · 126 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c8…9b69backed Yes | 5c | 306.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 473 | 21.6%102 W · 371 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 255 | 10.6%27 W · 228 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…b7fcbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc1…1178backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f8…5aecbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…1698backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 0 - 3 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?Yes won
- Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden?No won
- Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.