Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db5139e1aa15c977e8edac2028aa1608d5fe73c000641101d38b507b55699f7

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $213,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $183,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,715 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	6c	26,376$1,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,503.15	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked Yes	5c	13,000$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	355	14.4%51 W · 304 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes	7c	11,505$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	195	29.7%58 W · 137 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Yes	6c	10,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	70	20%14 W · 56 L	-6.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bd0…24a3backed Yes	4c	6,250$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes	4c	5,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	405	15.3%62 W · 343 L	+11.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28a6…1673backed Yes	6c	4,013$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed Yes	5c	3,603$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.18	564	10.5%59 W · 505 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…bc33backed Yes	6c	3,333$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	226	26.5%60 W · 166 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076f…4ddcbacked Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes	5c	2,597$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.98	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5748…a99abacked Yes	6c	2,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c36…89ffbacked Yes	6c	2,408$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.48	290	17.6%51 W · 239 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x118c…ae45backed Yes	2c	2,100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	251	15.5%39 W · 212 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	6c	1,977$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.93	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x883d…d2e8backed Yes	7c	1,939$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	5c	1,739$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.97	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…4997backed Yes	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	235	13.2%31 W · 204 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+52%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x731d…c932backed Yes	6c	1,605$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.32	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	138	47.1%65 W · 73 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e17…f290backed Yes	6c	1,084$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	385	26.8%103 W · 282 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x261a…887fbacked Yes	7c	857.14$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb3…4fbcbacked Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	32.9%24 W · 49 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	672	9.2%62 W · 610 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…1911backed Yes	6c	716.67$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4c9…8803backed Yes	4c	710.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	117	17.1%20 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6592…2767backed Yes	6c	666.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989f…989fbacked Yes	6c	643.5$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.61	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	637.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f1…5d81backed Yes	3c	600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	65	40%26 W · 39 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6403…0318backed Yes	6c	553.57$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.69	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b66…4870backed Yes	6c	535.17$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…755bbacked Yes	5c	503$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	160	19.4%31 W · 129 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x831a…e8e6backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	90	36.7%33 W · 57 L	+6.1wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	463	19.9%92 W · 371 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d1…e887backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd753…6053backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	302	19.9%60 W · 242 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9c20…a7dfbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	302	15.2%46 W · 256 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes	4c	450$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ef…f569backed Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	303	21.5%65 W · 238 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c7…f1f3backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	131	22.1%29 W · 102 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8933…630dbacked Yes	6c	383.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	126	22.2%28 W · 98 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb15…ee0fbacked Yes	6c	350$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	177	23.7%42 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	373	20.9%78 W · 295 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5f…6128backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	7.9%5 W · 58 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3848…9db2backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	99	33.3%33 W · 66 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9a…6ac0backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	249	37.3%93 W · 156 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf3…43abbacked Yes	6c	316.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	203	25.6%52 W · 151 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf346…8232backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	255	10.6%27 W · 228 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa674…36a2backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9f…dd87backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	5c	280.03$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc05a…532bbacked Yes	5c	280$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	134	24.6%33 W · 101 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a9…107cbacked Yes	4c	279.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf65a…c8fbbacked Yes	6c	266.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	5c	265.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	190	26.3%50 W · 140 L	-10.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e6e…ddd3backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd475…825dbacked Yes	4c	243.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked Yes	6c	240$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	927	32.1%298 W · 629 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Yes	5c	240$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,421	47.8%679 W · 742 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Yes	6c	220$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	103	14.6%15 W · 88 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb4…36c4backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac78…a7b7backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	123	30.9%38 W · 85 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35bd…c7c0backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f7…6ae0backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4a…b3c5backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	356	12.6%45 W · 311 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab5…bc89backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	152	9.2%14 W · 138 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf23f…af26backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-10%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden?this page
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 3 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden?Yes won
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden?No won
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event