Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf11398dd44dc31db49a2bd905e2363e6dc8951cda76c666e368dc14d6fdcf948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flame Teamof Zero Tenacity, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Flame Team | 32c | 5,709$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,882.19 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 52c | 3,638$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.64 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Flame Team | 35c | 3,421$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Zero Tenacity | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Zero Tenacity | 75c | 2,093$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.64 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Flame Team | 18c | 1,400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.98 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Flame Team | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Zero Tenacity | 70c | 980.87$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.76 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Zero Tenacity | 70c | 957.42$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Flame Team | 71c | 920.57$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity | 79c | 717.39$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.58 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Flame Team | 56c | 680.99$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.27 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Zero Tenacity | 34c | 596.37$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Zero Tenacity | 50c | 579.62$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.66 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team | 50c | 486.46$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.91 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 456.65$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.2 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 455.25$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.29 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Flame Team | 32c | 450$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Zero Tenacity | 44c | 421.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.42 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 293.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…e21fbacked Flame Team | 32c | 271.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.61 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 255.89$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.43 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 240$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Zero Tenacity | 71c | 230$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Zero Tenacity | 60c | 220$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Flame Team | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team | 45c | 191.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked Zero Tenacity | 71c | 189.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Zero Tenacity | 53c | 188.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 180$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Flame Team | 66c | 179.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…ad7cbacked Zero Tenacity | 15c | 175.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 173.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team | 47c | 161.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Flame Team | 60c | 153$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Zero Tenacity | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…2de6backed Zero Tenacity | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed Zero Tenacity | 67c | 118.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed Zero Tenacity | 33c | 118.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 111.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Zero Tenacity | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Flame Team | 31c | 93.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Flame Team | 29c | 91.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Zero Tenacity | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…0f76backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 73.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Zero Tenacity | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…5c83backed Zero Tenacity | 72c | 69.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…5ef9backed Zero Tenacity | 73c | 68.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Zero Tenacity | 31c | 67.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Flame Team | 31c | 58.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Flame Team | 37c | 54.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Zero Tenacity | 43c | 54.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Zero Tenacity | 58c | 51.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0932…ba5abacked Zero Tenacity | 24c | 44.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Zero Tenacity | 71c | 42.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Flame Team | 27c | 39.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 35.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Zero Tenacity | 30c | 34.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Zero Tenacity | 44c | 32.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Zero Tenacity | 71c | 26.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Zero Tenacity | 75c | 19.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Zero Tenacity | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsFlame Team won
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 WinnerFlame Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.