NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf15c175e3d3df69c18a99bbb159d6b57b914995e6668377ec61af7e219db47b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Under | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -11.0wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 63c | 2,834$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.38 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 51c | 1,727$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.32 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Over | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,192$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Under | 53c | 854.29$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed Under | 50c | 711.92$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.5 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 64c | 704.59$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.65 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 67c | 596.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.79 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Over | 60c | 322.22$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Under | 44c | 293.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 64c | 237.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 216.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Over | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Under | 53c | 189.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Under | 36c | 148$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 19c | 139.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 64.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 70c | 33.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 62c | 29.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 57c | 28.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…b82cbacked Over | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Over | 68c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Corey Kispert: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Pacers vs. HawksHawks won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 250.5Under won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.