Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf161eb8875223609062fb3fb5ad6318137bad815479685e9babfc943dc9f2110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 2,223$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 7c | 1,365$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 786.19$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 728.35$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 6c | 722.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.15 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 661.63$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 632.56$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 10c | 511.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.6 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 477.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 471.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 406.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.11 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 13c | 381.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 347.5$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 46c | 311.97$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.98 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 310.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 34c | 290.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.9 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 273.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 77c | 242.69$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 56c | 240.69$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 67c | 234.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 230.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 80c | 225.8$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 45c | 218.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 5c | 215.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 193.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 20c | 178.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 48c | 158.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 47c | 156.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 58c | 151.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 148.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 59c | 134.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 120.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 16c | 111.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 10c | 110.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 38c | 107.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 47c | 107.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 106.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 100.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 64c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked No | 69c | 78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 40c | 75.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 34c | 72.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 54c | 71.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 70.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 47c | 70.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 50c | 67.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 67.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 66.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc14…fb55backed No | 79c | 63.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 53c | 62.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 57c | 56.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 61c | 52.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 24c | 50.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 43c | 45.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3269backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 43.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 53c | 42.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 40.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 63c | 40.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 51c | 39.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 80c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 73c | 34.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 34.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed No | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…8692backed Yes | 62c | 32.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 32.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 44c | 31.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed No | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…c1bebacked Yes | 79c | 23.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked Yes | 58c | 22.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 20.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…feb5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 76c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.