Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1ccda86cb6e17f952b744fc859c6c222a1054e5288e4750493555370d3d5e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 8,292$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 1,781$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.48 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 1,452$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 63c | 1,126$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.64 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 44c | 991.26$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.73 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 64c | 770.21$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 36c | 762.73$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 762.71$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 737.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 706$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 695$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 684.25$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 70c | 640.56$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.9 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 615.53$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 79c | 417.41$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 406.41$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 30c | 388.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 10c | 371.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 45c | 365.25$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.49 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 347.5$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 52c | 332.84$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 310.95$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 41c | 292.83$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 21c | 267.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 261.41$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 66c | 260.93$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 260.12$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 246.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 41c | 234.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 73c | 230.08$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 21c | 227.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 227.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 51c | 223.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 40c | 222.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 76c | 222$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 39c | 215.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 209.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 204.3$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 30c | 197.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 44c | 185$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 49c | 182.46$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 56c | 181.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 23c | 173.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 57c | 169.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 65c | 166.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…f027backed No | 80c | 164.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 41c | 159.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 50c | 157.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 49c | 155.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 56c | 151.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 146.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 34c | 145.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 42c | 142.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 64c | 140.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 23c | 140.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 64c | 139.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 134$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 45c | 128.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 66c | 127.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 124.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 43c | 120.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 41c | 113.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 110.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 110.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 27c | 107.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 102.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…121ebacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 64c | 98.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 98.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 36c | 96.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 91.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 55c | 84.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 39c | 76.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 74.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 73.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 68c | 73.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 33c | 71.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 32c | 66.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 78c | 66.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 66.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 65.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 41c | 63.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 40c | 56.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 57c | 56.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 38c | 56.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 42c | 55.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.