Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e33238262dab79eef4f4fb962fc0fc9d51bcae5814ec2ab73a4dd8d425b2f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 20,001$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 2c | 3,403$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 949.66$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.64 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 511.8$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 43c | 511.72$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 349.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 344.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 297.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 43c | 233.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 231.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 226$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 212.32$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 28c | 202.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 189.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 157.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 156.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 44c | 150.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 71c | 141.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 140.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 138.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 79c | 137.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 131.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 43c | 131.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 21c | 129.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 25c | 124.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 40c | 121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 62c | 118$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 116.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 109.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 106.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 58c | 94.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 36c | 93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 41c | 90.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 39c | 84.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 76c | 79.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…6f7bbacked Yes | 41c | 78.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 76.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 74c | 74.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 53c | 73.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 50c | 67.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 61c | 65.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 62.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 61.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 55.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 53.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 51.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 46.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 40c | 45.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 45.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…d760backed Yes | 45c | 44.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 41c | 43.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 43.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 43.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 42c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 39.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 59c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 76c | 37.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 75c | 35.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 35.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 34.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 34.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 31.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 58c | 31.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 30.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 28.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 27.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 59c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 57c | 25.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.