Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32b1d216a227998deb5a074ff6624717992cbaeb2ecee3a73694e50075795a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,462$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 634.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 426.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 24c | 415.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 407.23$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.03 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 12c | 208.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 198.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 15c | 194.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 174.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 156.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 126.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 124.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 118.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 17c | 109.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 20c | 105.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 36c | 101.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 92.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 91.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 90.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 23c | 87.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 86.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 84.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 31c | 68.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 64.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdd…e7b3backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed Yes | 22c | 55.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 29c | 49.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 45.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 42.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 37c | 42.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 35c | 40.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 36.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 35c | 33.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 32.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 80c | 31.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…d95abacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 72c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…51bbbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.