Earnings · resolved market
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1771712af2248cc7578c94e04c6cd05e8bfb49577a66530330f4e2dc1d04bf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 35c | 1,104$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 67c | 852.98$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.98 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 36c | 611.46$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 30c | 413$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 49c | 312$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.97 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 50c | 304.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.27 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 273.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 72c | 245.85$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 221.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 63c | 194.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 160.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71a…c97dbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 65c | 148.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 35c | 142.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 122.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 33c | 99.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 65c | 90.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…3a3cbacked Yes | 40c | 90.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 33c | 90.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 53c | 86.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 69c | 81.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…9ef5backed No | 64c | 78.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…e83ebacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked No | 69c | 72.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 70.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…3585backed No | 61c | 67.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…f7a9backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed No | 69c | 38.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 47c | 37.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 76c | 33.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…0296backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…9f23backed No | 67c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 53c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…d712backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.