TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,287

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6842…20d0backed Fluxo W7M37c12,977$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,850.241,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…a807backed Fluxo W7M0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10535.7%3 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked RED Canids60c5,229$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.6687844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Fluxo W7M41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.9928642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Fluxo W7M40c4,954$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.11,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked RED Canids65c4,554$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.111,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fluxo W7M32c4,333$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.092,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed RED Canids62c4,074$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.6927346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed RED Canids70c3,845$2,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.4134658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked RED Canids61c3,698$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.2459248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581a…e40dbacked Fluxo W7M38c3,554$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.927354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed RED Canids60c3,177$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.731,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Fluxo W7M7c3,156$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.911,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fluxo W7M12c3,075$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.42,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8ad8…8125backed RED Canids70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fluxo W7M15c2,872$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.341,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Fluxo W7M11c2,668$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fluxo W7M31c2,465$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.471,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Fluxo W7M42c2,162$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.1954756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Fluxo W7M42c2,121$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.131,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked RED Canids76c1,994$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.9166559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked RED Canids63c1,902$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.9630554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Fluxo W7M41c1,898$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.671,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21a3…3e5cbacked RED Canids67c1,789$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.577164.8%46 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf52b…d547backed Fluxo W7M42c1,678$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71019054.2%103 W · 87 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed RED Canids68c1,652$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.771,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed RED Canids68c1,639$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.596939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Fluxo W7M41c1,570$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.6917439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1312…39cebacked RED Canids62c1,566$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.6312853.1%68 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Fluxo W7M23c1,560$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.191,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked RED Canids58c1,552$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.841,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RED Canids72c1,510$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.911,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked RED Canids61c1,500$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58540741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Fluxo W7M42c1,489$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.012,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bc…46f8backed RED Canids59c1,400$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.6627340.7%111 W · 162 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc904…2025backed Fluxo W7M51c1,254$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.713256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe415…0445backed Fluxo W7M31c1,226$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Fluxo W7M7c1,213$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.950745%228 W · 279 L+1.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked RED Canids61c1,197$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.039658.3%56 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed RED Canids79c1,150$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4821861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed Fluxo W7M29c1,149$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010650%53 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked RED Canids62c1,134$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.2335659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Fluxo W7M25c1,078$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.423724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo W7M34c1,071$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.632,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed RED Canids68c1,050$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3366035%21 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Fluxo W7M26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26015534.8%54 W · 101 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Fluxo W7M35c999.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.991,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6b5ebacked RED Canids59c978.1$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.025855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked RED Canids59c967.64$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.7363944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked RED Canids74c939.81$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.811,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed RED Canids75c930.06$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.085464.8%35 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed RED Canids59c916.8$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.882951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed RED Canids59c898$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8220644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed Fluxo W7M7c850$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.555110.3%57 W · 494 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdee7…1ad7backed RED Canids59c817.51$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.1812962.8%81 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad0…6187backed Fluxo W7M42c807.74$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2516443.3%71 W · 93 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93a4…6bdbbacked RED Canids62c754.48$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.6510739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fe…211ebacked Fluxo W7M30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5f…85d5backed Fluxo W7M41c664.71$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.884654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Fluxo W7M10c651.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6860347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5439…c45bbacked RED Canids75c647.96$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.033571.4%25 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Fluxo W7M41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24622746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…f39dbacked RED Canids61c573.77$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.774052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed Fluxo W7M41c529.93$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2796452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed RED Canids53c527.24$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1752438.9%204 W · 320 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked RED Canids73c512.84$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1885742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed Fluxo W7M39c512.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9931150.2%156 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Fluxo W7M6c501.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0396149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked RED Canids79c501.24$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.211,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Fluxo W7M20c500.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9826349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed Fluxo W7M44c496.03$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.229339.8%37 W · 56 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked RED Canids58c478.5$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.941,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e78…fb29backed Fluxo W7M31c477.63$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9815559.4%92 W · 63 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked Fluxo W7M27c450$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12039048.2%188 W · 202 L+26.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked RED Canids55c441$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4515534.8%54 W · 101 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c99…8b23backed RED Canids70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x755f…2cffbacked RED Canids61c424.67$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6725162.9%158 W · 93 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Fluxo W7M29c420$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.811146.8%52 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+47.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed RED Canids59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16421350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc104…e684backed Fluxo W7M41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fluxo W7M27c399.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.182,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed RED Canids59c388$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.081827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Fluxo W7M7c379.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5613349.6%66 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked Fluxo W7M51c375.22$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.363560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8558…8615backed Fluxo W7M51c375.22$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.364261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RED Canids59c364.84$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.21,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked RED Canids75c364.43$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0394444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Fluxo W7M24c352.72$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6535058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Fluxo W7M41c346.83$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14295951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed RED Canids61c343.24$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.235757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed RED Canids77c341$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.431,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed RED Canids61c340.52$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.87648.7%37 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c57…4d10backed Fluxo W7M7c335.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Fluxo W7M46c328.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021753.9%117 W · 100 L-0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fluxo W7M29c324.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.892,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked RED Canids73c321$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8485849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed RED Canids66c312.41$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.71,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked RED Canids60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12035164.1%225 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53da…7603backed RED Canids64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.415161.6%93 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked RED Canids61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11710749.5%53 W · 54 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.