TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof FURIA, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked Gentle Mates27c26,048$7,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,031.1241040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Gentle Mates14c18,242$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Gentle Mates21c5,002$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.641,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Gentle Mates21c4,000$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.122,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates29c3,312$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.822,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Gentle Mates15c2,981$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.0831654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked FURIA75c2,842$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.8341069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed FURIA65c2,584$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.67245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Gentle Mates16c2,491$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.975,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Gentle Mates20c2,367$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.6261228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Gentle Mates14c2,316$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.3714042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FURIA78c2,227$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.643,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Gentle Mates20c2,057$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.8613545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Gentle Mates28c2,019$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.597454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked FURIA73c1,798$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.5640140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f89…11e9backed FURIA71c1,634$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.74785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FURIA78c1,500$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.541,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked FURIA70c1,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45013065.4%85 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed FURIA71c1,490$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.6212651.6%65 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FURIA66c1,451$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.111,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FURIA71c1,411$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.151,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Gentle Mates29c1,369$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Gentle Mates18c1,350$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked FURIA76c1,300$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.3918654.8%102 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed FURIA71c1,254$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.7434156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked Gentle Mates20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017945.3%81 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gentle Mates22c1,203$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.644,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Gentle Mates33c1,100$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36350846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed Gentle Mates10c1,068$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd57b…c48fbacked FURIA72c1,048$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.087062.9%44 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Gentle Mates7c933.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3332425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Gentle Mates15c916.74$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.024645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked FURIA76c916.62$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.515069.3%104 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Gentle Mates17c877.39$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.414947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed FURIA75c747.02$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1931642.1%133 W · 183 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Gentle Mates31c700$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21794645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FURIA72c672.47$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5140253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Gentle Mates19c654.89$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12550050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FURIA70c650$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19551252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Gentle Mates8c649.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5221246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Gentle Mates15c649.97$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4960838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked FURIA80c641.09$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2211443%49 W · 65 L-12.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates16c556.1$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.77,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gentle Mates10c520$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.92,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Gentle Mates16c518.92$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.174,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Gentle Mates27c503.82$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.932,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Gentle Mates19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9546345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Gentle Mates29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14555843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked FURIA77c498.63$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.599040%36 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gentle Mates18c477.56$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.53,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Gentle Mates11c460.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019329%56 W · 137 L-23.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-40.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gentle Mates24c443.34$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.222,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FURIA75c428.24$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.761,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Gentle Mates29c422.73$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4243544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90a…f6b5backed FURIA74c418.71$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9112165.3%79 W · 42 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Gentle Mates25c414.65$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.224,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Gentle Mates29c413.15$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7944939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0fb…b170backed Gentle Mates7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FURIA74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed Gentle Mates31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12424942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed FURIA72c370.15$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.849542.1%40 W · 55 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe297…e484backed FURIA70c364.17$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9732258.7%189 W · 133 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1866…1325backed FURIA71c355.59$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.478648.8%42 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed FURIA72c346.18$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5216761.7%103 W · 64 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked Gentle Mates10c324.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4321519.1%41 W · 174 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FURIA80c316.37$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.275,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d43…3f6cbacked FURIA71c282.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1817467.8%118 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates22c281.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4787047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52c5…5878backed Gentle Mates30c280$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8414346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed FURIA72c279.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2524055.8%134 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Gentle Mates29c279$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0648319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Gentle Mates17c277.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.871,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9700…798fbacked FURIA74c270.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0912852.3%67 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Gentle Mates26c269.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7037232.5%121 W · 251 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Gentle Mates29c263.86$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.242,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd82d…7882backed Gentle Mates19c260.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.741030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Gentle Mates24c258.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6213142%55 W · 76 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Gentle Mates21c250.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6435460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x962d…dc4cbacked FURIA80c247.63$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.538151.9%42 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6754…e4fcbacked FURIA69c241.42$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.479153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+123.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked FURIA70c240$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.48664%55 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf05e…04cebacked FURIA71c239.24$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3819259.4%114 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed FURIA80c230$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.839258.2%228 W · 164 L+18.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Gentle Mates16c212.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3416720.4%34 W · 133 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Gentle Mates18c208.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3746042.8%197 W · 263 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Gentle Mates27c204.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.218246.3%38 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked FURIA77c200.07$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.84264.3%27 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6f0…7b5bbacked Gentle Mates37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742650%13 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Gentle Mates13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264526.7%12 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Gentle Mates21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9332042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Gentle Mates25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5056738.8%220 W · 347 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed Gentle Mates21c194$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Gentle Mates26c192.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022252.7%117 W · 105 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe841…8e4cbacked Gentle Mates6c188.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Gentle Mates19c169.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.452,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ca…762bbacked Gentle Mates10c163.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3424…8b87backed Gentle Mates31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Gentle Mates18c151.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6337441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Gentle Mates22c149.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3930348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Gentle Mates14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.