TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC 329: Farid Basharat vs. John Garza (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Farid Basharatof Farid Basharat, John Garza
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,476 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f2f…2ca8backed John Garza14c27,883$3,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,903.6713452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked John Garza28c10,474$2,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.3210546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed John Garza18c5,455$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.120048.5%97 W · 103 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Farid Basharat70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5007452.7%39 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed John Garza21c4,894$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.3315444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe301…8654backed John Garza19c4,788$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.211060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked John Garza14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked John Garza15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed John Garza39c2,690$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.983644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Farid Basharat78c2,489$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.8733132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfae1…fdc1backed Farid Basharat69c2,450$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.374100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Farid Basharat70c2,020$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.694936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed John Garza16c1,875$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed John Garza14c1,665$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.095152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked John Garza14c1,661$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.64040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked John Garza17c1,627$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.61450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed John Garza19c1,545$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013832.6%45 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed Farid Basharat68c1,476$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.022142.9%9 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e78…067ebacked John Garza30c1,301$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.383839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed John Garza15c1,279$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.813636.8%50 W · 86 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed John Garza15c1,179$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8529133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Farid Basharat77c1,175$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.823458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Farid Basharat58c1,102$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46816247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked John Garza15c1,062$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15526140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Farid Basharat60c1,000$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40513636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked John Garza27c955.61$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.863625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Farid Basharat76c945.53$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.996963.8%44 W · 25 L+11.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x299b…cdc1backed Farid Basharat62c932.79$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.791070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed John Garza37c926.56$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.2116156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Farid Basharat77c870$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.055863.8%37 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+43.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x671d…2e26backed John Garza35c826.12$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.375637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Farid Basharat65c690.62$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.4411140.5%45 W · 66 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked John Garza15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Farid Basharat63c634.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.921050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked John Garza15c621.07$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+114.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Farid Basharat73c616.44$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.444746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99b1…196abacked John Garza30c600$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.68861.4%54 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed John Garza42c597.52$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed John Garza30c573.88$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1615048.7%73 W · 77 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Farid Basharat74c566.84$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked John Garza36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed John Garza13c506.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.512556%14 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Farid Basharat70c480.33$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.13754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Farid Basharat63c478.79$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb73…1e52backed Farid Basharat63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.199452.1%49 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0094…c496backed John Garza17c447.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed John Garza15c446.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52948.3%14 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56d8…1ccebacked John Garza19c436.84$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Farid Basharat71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.541250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked John Garza8c404.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3526352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xded6…f649backed John Garza16c403.62$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed John Garza17c395.57$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.251338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed John Garza19c359.33$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.853253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked John Garza17c354.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013248.5%64 W · 68 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Farid Basharat78c354.35$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3426736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Farid Basharat72c319.49$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.913951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Farid Basharat80c312.81$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.564656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed John Garza15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511937.8%45 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf85f…6ea2backed John Garza16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed John Garza26c298.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3422438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8c…c014backed John Garza17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501618.8%3 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Farid Basharat79c290$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.912557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Farid Basharat67c288.15$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0915933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xade3…b321backed John Garza25c277.76$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.441353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed John Garza24c262.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0415839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed John Garza16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406142.6%26 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Farid Basharat75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec5a…cd56backed Farid Basharat61c246.18$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.184037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed John Garza18c222$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.962556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Farid Basharat77c209.65$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6415238.2%58 W · 94 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked John Garza17c205.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked John Garza24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486552.3%34 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked John Garza31c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed John Garza7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked John Garza15c198$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.79746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e22…237ebacked John Garza13c189.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249337.6%35 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked John Garza25c176.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0611942.9%51 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b4…9332backed John Garza17c167.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.442045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked John Garza24c166.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.722334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed John Garza34c156$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4312451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da9…453fbacked John Garza33c151.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed John Garza34c149.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.425560%33 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e5e…fd91backed John Garza20c146$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Farid Basharat77c134.52$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4614551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27a0…cd28backed John Garza15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Farid Basharat70c125$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.56147.5%29 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7414…8c11backed John Garza35c120.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423129%9 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-41.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa95a…6b78backed John Garza14c116.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.281650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49b7…b0b3backed John Garza14c114.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed John Garza15c106.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1618647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5186…fee7backed John Garza16c104.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ea…1c22backed John Garza28c103.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.433956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e8…46c5backed John Garza29c103.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35b8…5e92backed John Garza30c100.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed John Garza37c100.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.789548.4%46 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Farid Basharat60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.738434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Farid Basharat55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Farid Basharat80c98.43$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.754643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Farid Basharat56c97.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0110746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed John Garza16c89.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17850%39 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.