TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Falcons

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Falconsof Commanders, Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,103,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,375,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,103,373 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 487 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Commanders43c1,251,412$538,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538,601.898344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Falcons57c425,116$243,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,564.9622548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Commanders43c348,798$149,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149,983.031741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Falcons57c267,964$153,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114,770.2324551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Falcons56c267,275$149,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117,642.3512352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Falcons57c162,900$92,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,04710061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Falcons57c148,000$84,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,04024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Falcons56c112,000$62,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,2803259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Falcons57c110,193$62,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,466.8210566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Falcons55c66,739$37,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,700.31957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Falcons58c60,000$34,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,20011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Commanders43c59,143$25,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,574.4530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Falcons56c54,746$30,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,242.444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Falcons53c47,557$25,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,233.333548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Commanders44c40,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,60031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Falcons58c36,211$21,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,208.6522950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Commanders38c30,000$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,50011755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Falcons60c29,759$17,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,789.6710462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Falcons58c28,969$16,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,280.1561148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9af…6371backed Commanders46c26,095$11,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,9262920.7%6 W · 23 L-8.5wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Commanders44c25,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0007657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Falcons56c24,955$13,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,028.966645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Commanders39c20,003$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8504250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Commanders42c20,000$8,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,436.6412144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Commanders44c20,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7007035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Falcons64c20,000$12,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,206.2711252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Falcons58c19,000$11,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9801942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Commanders42c17,777$7,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,466.3414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Falcons55c16,274$8,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,312.3611146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Commanders43c15,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed Falcons57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,450862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Falcons55c14,545$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,545.4511649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Falcons73c12,856$9,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,495.5341947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Falcons53c12,627$6,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,993.5117647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Commanders48c11,529$5,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,576.7253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…0aacbacked Falcons58c11,227$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,715.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Commanders36c10,348$3,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.5529356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Commanders29c10,265$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.0812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Falcons49c10,136$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,169.281850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6937…085dbacked Commanders44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Falcons56c9,911$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,360.9641851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10bf…c877backed Commanders52c9,619$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002832.1%9 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d47…d0a2backed Falcons55c9,455$5,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,285.21283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Commanders43c9,110$3,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,956.6247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Falcons56c9,043$5,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,997.8651352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cec…e65cbacked Commanders45c8,890$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Commanders11c8,702$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.4713430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Falcons49c8,685$4,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,420.3217648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Commanders45c8,500$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.311931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Falcons58c7,738$4,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,276.0539754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Falcons53c7,663$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,593.9431854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Falcons77c7,196$5,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.8930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Commanders22c7,166$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.5714147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Commanders52c7,000$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.9926650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x774a…98f2backed Commanders45c6,670$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Falcons56c6,250$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Falcons54c5,887$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,683.3914951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x706f…a645backed Commanders45c5,552$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Commanders23c5,155$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.7225137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb5c…88b0backed Falcons57c5,144$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Commanders1c5,064$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.647733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Falcons64c5,003$3,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.283458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Commanders43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Commanders44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20014342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca67…c23dbacked Commanders43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Commanders36c5,000$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.8518435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Commanders43c4,683$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Commanders45c4,647$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.16339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Commanders30c4,615$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400140%0 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…07d4backed Commanders46c4,607$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.181154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf940…e72dbacked Commanders53c4,600$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce5…660ebacked Falcons49c4,599$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb811…c119backed Falcons55c4,550$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Commanders46c4,488$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.5114148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e51…a759backed Commanders45c4,445$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Falcons57c4,385$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.7137350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Falcons77c4,379$3,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.3631056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Commanders46c4,350$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x650f…a403backed Falcons56c4,300$2,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Falcons50c4,100$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0503050%15 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Falcons50c4,033$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.5428447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Commanders57c3,967$2,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,260.9513450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d48…d360backed Commanders38c3,960$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf02…4fdcbacked Falcons52c3,859$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8591163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Commanders55c3,713$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.289359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Falcons59c3,698$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.364247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Falcons56c3,640$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.620661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94e8…c2d6backed Falcons55c3,640$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8294…4488backed Falcons55c3,640$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3572…fadebacked Falcons55c3,637$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…a674backed Falcons55c3,636$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee45…5219backed Falcons56c3,568$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Falcons75c3,418$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.555560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f95…53b1backed Commanders45c3,330$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Commanders51c3,327$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.0283447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Commanders36c3,285$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.9519551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Falcons62c3,285$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.1227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc6…a7bbbacked Commanders44c3,252$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…310fbacked Falcons57c3,252$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Falcons56c3,200$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.9911750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.