Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5212a65c6252a36ddf56cf6e1f7765a8455bd983493b4e98b15658bca3c74f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 1,148$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.7 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 13c | 601.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.26 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 599.98$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.99 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 5c | 569.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 22c | 503.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.43 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 34c | 436.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.07 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 55c | 304.56$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 48c | 255$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 17c | 246.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.74 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 73c | 239.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 14c | 216.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.77 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 13c | 205.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked No | 50c | 157$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 151.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 146.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 27c | 132.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…208dbacked No | 80c | 131$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 119.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 93.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 18c | 91.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 18c | 79.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 13c | 77.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…4189backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked No | 56c | 70.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 68.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 64c | 51.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 36c | 51.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…2995backed Yes | 49c | 46.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 62c | 43.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…a595backed No | 77c | 43.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…ef6abacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…149bbacked No | 54c | 24.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 65c | 23.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…7b1fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.