Fifa International · resolved market
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e5b7f98345f80e9b223681303be939d98ce5541371e4be978e997c693cd02e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 68c | 600$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 30c | 466.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 399.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 29c | 219.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 76c | 215.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 23c | 171$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…49d2backed Yes | 62c | 160.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 130.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 14c | 95.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…7b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 93.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 89.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 61.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 77c | 39.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…a595backed No | 70c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 33.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 64c | 32.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…51d5backed Yes | 33c | 32.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 38c | 32.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 35c | 29.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84d…c11abacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…e8f7backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked No | 64c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.