TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Jazz (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Jazzof Jazz, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,759 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Kings45c3,765$1,700 inLost-$1,699.845,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Jazz55c3,646$2,001 inWon+$1,645.275846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Jazz53c1,600$848 inWon+$751.991,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Jazz56c1,080$600 inWon+$480.4823251.7%120 W · 112 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Jazz51c1,024$522 inWon+$501.7582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Kings49c987.73$484 inLost-$483.9944352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kings45c782.8$353 inLost-$352.522,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Kings47c774.06$364 inLost-$363.8192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Kings48c482.04$232 inLost-$232.1266646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jazz55c395$217 inWon+$177.753,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Kings47c385.11$181 inLost-$1815558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Jazz52c299.35$155 inWon+$144.051266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3df8…3ee8backed Jazz53c259.94$137 inWon+$122.945952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Kings48c205.83$99 inLost-$98.81,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings45c200$90 inLost-$903,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Kings47c198.08$93 inLost-$92.6743543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Jazz52c192.88$100 inWon+$92.883925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd571…9f0abacked Kings47c180.85$85 inLost-$85955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Jazz54c97.61$53 inWon+$44.429349.5%46 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x752e…ecbfbacked Kings47c74.47$35 inLost-$354837.5%18 W · 30 L-6.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Kings47c59.97$28 inLost-$28.191,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Kings49c54$26 inLost-$26.4688057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc766…c4d9backed Kings45c40$18 inLost-$181546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Jazz53c30$16 inWon+$14.160267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kings49c30$15 inLost-$14.71,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.