Fifa International · resolved market
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf697d647d6d0b6814281398c185236c648f99d4625873fa196e24dc45db21a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c2…198cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,800$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.54 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,680$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.06 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…cfadbacked Yes | 16c | 2,623$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,218$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…7dbabacked No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 10c | 1,110$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 850.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes | 16c | 831.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…4dcebacked Yes | 15c | 732.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 14c | 689.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 9c | 685.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 78c | 599.99$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 13c | 585.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 569.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…7225backed Yes | 13c | 564.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 11c | 556.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 23c | 480.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 479 | 35.1%168 W · 311 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…64fbbacked Yes | 24c | 417.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 408.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed Yes | 15c | 402.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 373.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 15c | 351.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 329.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked Yes | 11c | 314.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 280$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…18f6backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 11c | 235.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 20c | 233.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 228.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 16c | 220.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 6c | 181.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…1ec7backed Yes | 7c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 145$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 14c | 138.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 138.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 129.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…766abacked Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…e14cbacked Yes | 22c | 91.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 14c | 80.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 78c | 49.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ba…1eabbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?this page
- Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?Yes won
- Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.