Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6cae0b2ed8fdc8571e707dd92b023c254a58eb82f5f916dd62b1839f39d2f96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 2,590$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.75 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 12c | 1,573$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 285 | 40.4%115 W · 170 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 640.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 635.66$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 35c | 583.54$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.24 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 23c | 503.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 48c | 486.37$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.87 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 22c | 300.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 65c | 295$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 18c | 253.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 74c | 244.45$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 36c | 233.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 225.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 223.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 36c | 222.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 70c | 215.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 215$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…43cebacked Yes | 9c | 181.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 180.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 161.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 144$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 142.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 135.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 38c | 134.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…ff6cbacked Yes | 40c | 116.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 116.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 108.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 22c | 104.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 100.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 21c | 96.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 91.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 86.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 80.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 79.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 78.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250b…da88backed No | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 77.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 35c | 72.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 67.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 65.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…d113backed No | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 22c | 64.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 56.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 71c | 46.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 23c | 43.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 41.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 48c | 41.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 66c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff6…b95dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 36.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 35.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 33.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 33.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 32.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed Yes | 35c | 31.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 31.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 27.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 78c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…5e29backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 47c | 25.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 348 | 67.8%236 W · 112 L | +26.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 59c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92c…79a1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 64c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 231 | 30.7%71 W · 160 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.