TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbb7…a11abacked No77c2,590$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.751,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed Yes12c1,573$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8828540.4%115 W · 170 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed Yes22c800$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1765930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c640.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes27c635.66$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.694,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes35c583.54$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2462960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes23c503.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes48c486.37$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8712441.9%52 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+94.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes22c300.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9952046.9%244 W · 276 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c80…c3ddbacked No65c295$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.166666.7%44 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes18c253.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3669150.5%349 W · 342 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No74c244.45$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.441,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes36c233.41$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0325158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No67c225.6$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.891,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes30c223.97$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1966424.2%161 W · 503 L-22.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes36c222.51$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796738.8%26 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No70c215.69$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6613861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No67c215$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1918166.9%121 W · 60 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6235…7a5ebacked No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722075%15 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2232…43cebacked Yes9c181.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c180.34$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.386,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No74c161.81$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.512,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No67c144$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8122771.8%163 W · 64 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes23c142.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6960032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c135.73$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2712,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes38c134.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8826253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes28c133$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2463733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,19650.8%608 W · 588 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x354b…ff6cbacked Yes40c116.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes38c116.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4858247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No58c108.34$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes22c104.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1892145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes20c100.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31,47234.8%512 W · 960 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked Yes21c96.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7532345.8%148 W · 175 L+16.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes35c91.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.796,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6199…ece4backed No66c89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.176672.7%48 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes16c86.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c80.34$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3912,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c79.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.554,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes25c78.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6548140.3%194 W · 287 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250b…da88backed No80c78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No65c77.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.371,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes35c72.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0921858.3%127 W · 91 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c67.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.924,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No69c65.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.652,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc524…d113backed No76c65.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes22c64.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes36c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8848546%223 W · 262 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.895,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No76c56.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.772,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1567838.6%262 W · 416 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eba…673fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecff…5645backed No71c46.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.592759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes23c43.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0955942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c41.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.65,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes48c41.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033943.1%146 W · 193 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes37c40.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0435050.3%176 W · 174 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.840142.4%170 W · 231 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.244644.6%199 W · 247 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No66c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46651.5%34 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff6…b95dbacked Yes54c36.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+72.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes32c36.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,80550.4%910 W · 895 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.622,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No65c35.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.43,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.850462.3%314 W · 190 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No78c33.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.522,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c33.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.15,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No69c33.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.122,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No67c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.021,50024.7%371 W · 1,129 L-31.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No67c32.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.632,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a85…70f5backed Yes35c31.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c31.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.382,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No63c30.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1870675.5%533 W · 173 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6296…981cbacked Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No65c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No78c27.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.162,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f0…1731backed No78c27.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.994269%29 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x170c…5e29backed No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No47c25.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.581,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1534867.8%236 W · 112 L+26.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0126969.5%187 W · 82 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x863a…a08bbacked No64c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.174470.5%31 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c20.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,83561.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No68c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.472,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No64c20.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.282,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e4…7718backed No59c20.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.255971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.54,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb92c…79a1backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.398651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.224756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No67c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.581457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No67c19.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.351,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6586230.7%265 W · 597 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No65c17.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.982,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked No64c17.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1623130.7%71 W · 160 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No76c16.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9417262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.54,14856.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L+51.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.