Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Darren Bailey win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf73a500ca233cbce912014ea288051f121684654ac3f27093d51f7e6d54213d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,323 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x636b…5627backed No | 7c | 8,070$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 2,633$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 75c | 1,544$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.01 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…159ebacked No | 6c | 826.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 64c | 771.19$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.44 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 597.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 517.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 4c | 501.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 2c | 479.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 4c | 322.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 4c | 301.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 275.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 6c | 255.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…ac18backed No | 32c | 253$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 11c | 252.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…61f6backed No | 5c | 250.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…7758backed No | 32c | 244$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…e149backed No | 8c | 243.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…27fdbacked No | 8c | 243.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0dc…e78abacked No | 7c | 242.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 6c | 217.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 7c | 171.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…4200backed Yes | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0092…7958backed Yes | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…2c75backed Yes | 68c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…921fbacked Yes | 68c | 77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…ad55backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 42c | 74.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 64c | 63.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…951fbacked Yes | 76c | 47.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 45c | 22.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 74c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darren Bailey win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will James Mendrick win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Joseph Severino win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Max Solomon win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Rick Heidner win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Ted Dabrowski win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.