TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$533,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$542,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,437 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e2c…787cbacked Astralis6c92,132$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,097.3372644.4%322 W · 404 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Astralis1c63,986$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.883729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Astralis33c17,471$5,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,679.0441040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Astralis1c15,294$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked Astralis20c15,048$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.521127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Team Falcons80c14,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80019660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons73c9,900$7,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,709.0311740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4533…0adcbacked Astralis1c7,673$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.734949%24 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Astralis22c7,331$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.831,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Team Falcons73c7,226$5,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.3939064.4%251 W · 139 L+47.6wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Astralis23c6,643$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.8287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Astralis23c6,637$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.553745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Astralis22c6,146$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.1117643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d36…f787backed Astralis21c5,491$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.11911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1efd…5656backed Team Falcons74c5,005$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.35580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Astralis39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.868670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Astralis22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9821424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88b…4613backed Team Falcons79c4,574$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed Team Falcons66c3,650$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.039047.8%43 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2c…3c32backed Team Falcons77c3,261$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.3419061.6%117 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Falcons80c2,641$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.172,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Astralis10c2,502$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.182,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Astralis3c2,354$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1820046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed Team Falcons73c2,051$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.359655.2%53 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3289…84debacked Team Falcons78c1,972$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Falcons77c1,873$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.223,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Astralis22c1,818$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40052837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Falcons72c1,776$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.1266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Astralis24c1,700$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4085028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Astralis21c1,686$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0614847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed Astralis21c1,654$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.2950846.9%238 W · 270 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Astralis21c1,649$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2715838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Astralis25c1,610$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.5240253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Astralis12c1,590$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6139970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Team Falcons77c1,574$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.688744.8%39 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Astralis22c1,568$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.964257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Team Falcons76c1,515$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.3635054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed Team Falcons67c1,494$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1815150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b1…a7babacked Team Falcons78c1,430$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Astralis23c1,430$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8921854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Team Falcons77c1,281$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.729443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons79c1,278$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.2945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons78c1,254$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.860953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Astralis27c1,252$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.4512937.2%48 W · 81 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Astralis21c1,218$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.831,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c2…1e3abacked Team Falcons79c1,210$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.094575.6%34 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis22c1,086$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.462,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Team Falcons78c1,057$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9614247.2%67 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed Team Falcons77c1,037$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1424262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis24c1,001$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.241,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Astralis1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed Team Falcons65c1,000$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35516749.1%82 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed Team Falcons62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38016949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff44…9e86backed Team Falcons67c999.99$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Astralis22c999.97$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9919346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis21c999$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.791,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons78c966.62$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.23,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Astralis34c950.32$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.1188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Astralis30c939.33$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2807943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Astralis23c929.23$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.21,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons80c913.1$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.621,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Team Falcons79c909.53$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1916866.2%45 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Team Falcons76c839.99$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.640175.1%301 W · 100 L+20.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8be4…a700backed Team Falcons77c823.82$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.485253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Astralis25c799.97$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9960748.1%292 W · 315 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed Astralis26c777.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons66c756.72$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7281751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons77c750$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.52,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Astralis23c678.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.382,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Falcons79c654.98$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.14,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb47…3502backed Team Falcons78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.032437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked Team Falcons78c640.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2611564.3%74 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked Astralis30c636.67$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons75c635.99$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.235,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Astralis25c621.91$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9227045.9%124 W · 146 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x374e…87c9backed Team Falcons66c606.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.315151%26 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb1…eac3backed Team Falcons77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1386544.6%29 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Astralis29c586$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1945646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Team Falcons78c584.42$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5727961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e9…d246backed Team Falcons79c582.43$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3126368.8%181 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Astralis28c582.17$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1460434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Team Falcons79c574.12$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.519565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Astralis22c566.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7142651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed Astralis27c547.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509534.7%33 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed Team Falcons74c540.87$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8740048.8%195 W · 205 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Falcons67c534.25$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.143,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf957…bcb6backed Team Falcons78c502.08$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.485837.9%22 W · 36 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Astralis25c500.42$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.12,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed Team Falcons60c500$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.965446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Astralis20c495.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3426624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Team Falcons74c470$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9222365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Team Falcons71c467$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.331,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5606…9bd7backed Team Falcons65c460$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.81361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3230…f430backed Astralis23c436.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Astralis30c430$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12940950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Astralis20c429.49$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.634,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed Astralis19c410.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9911341.6%47 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis23c403.6$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.861,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Astralis20c392.85$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1840137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.