TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ITF Astana: Shintaro Imai vs Shunsuke Mitsui

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shunsuke Mitsuiof Shintaro Imai, Shunsuke Mitsui
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Shunsuke Mitsui53c5,603$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.5411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Shintaro Imai59c4,439$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.9442332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Shunsuke Mitsui35c4,353$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.6271729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Shunsuke Mitsui37c2,531$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.5425144.6%112 W · 139 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26eb…5369backed Shunsuke Mitsui25c1,413$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.6313754%74 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c7…0bb4backed Shintaro Imai65c1,158$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.711338.5%5 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.29per pick67cpaid-44.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Shintaro Imai42c921.3$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.741,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7596…f13abacked Shintaro Imai63c866.7$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509340.9%38 W · 55 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Shintaro Imai32c848.03$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.424,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Shintaro Imai56c837.98$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2724452.5%128 W · 116 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked Shintaro Imai56c837.98$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.277459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked Shintaro Imai56c837.98$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.279267.4%62 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Shintaro Imai56c836.48$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.4336548.2%176 W · 189 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Shunsuke Mitsui52c782.76$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.5348855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Shunsuke Mitsui55c707$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.931,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Shintaro Imai43c599.97$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.997,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Shunsuke Mitsui50c510.88$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.896,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Shintaro Imai54c477.19$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.312,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Shintaro Imai55c407.27$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22439157.8%226 W · 165 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Shunsuke Mitsui53c406$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8225546.7%119 W · 136 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Shintaro Imai28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11222346.6%104 W · 119 L+15.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Shintaro Imai47c286.96$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7188358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef04…f6e3backed Shintaro Imai49c266.25$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.885054%27 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Shintaro Imai43c229$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4764350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Shunsuke Mitsui34c225$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.265,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Shintaro Imai52c213.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.021,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Shunsuke Mitsui56c186.79$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d7…9c21backed Shunsuke Mitsui58c186.21$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick43cpaid+61.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Shunsuke Mitsui54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1962956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Shunsuke Mitsui47c182.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.781,30838.9%509 W · 799 L-23.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Shunsuke Mitsui55c170.52$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5222335.4%79 W · 144 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0052…30bcbacked Shintaro Imai45c166.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.299346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shunsuke Mitsui32c148.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.036,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed Shintaro Imai58c143.46$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.112487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.2wins+0.22per pick66cpaid+31.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2cb2…ee14backed Shunsuke Mitsui49c135.7$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.398356.6%47 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Shunsuke Mitsui50c135.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0672147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b8…4a59backed Shunsuke Mitsui54c119.58$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.584660.9%28 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e61…2f1bbacked Shintaro Imai56c119.29$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.829148.5%141 W · 150 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…db27backed Shintaro Imai42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92a…ae82backed Shintaro Imai45c117.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec3…e330backed Shunsuke Mitsui47c117.6$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3343347.3%205 W · 228 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Shintaro Imai35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Shintaro Imai49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5092355.8%515 W · 408 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Shunsuke Mitsui54c100.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0260341.1%248 W · 355 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Shintaro Imai27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2740527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Shintaro Imai58c97.04$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5310543.8%46 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Shintaro Imai42c93.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2718666.7%124 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shintaro Imai30c84.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.112,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…6c35backed Shunsuke Mitsui58c84.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.48757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Shunsuke Mitsui49c82.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.173,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Shintaro Imai67c82.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5582560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Shintaro Imai66c73.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.281,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Shunsuke Mitsui57c71.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8247252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Shintaro Imai49c69.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,41745.2%640 W · 777 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Shunsuke Mitsui58c66.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7735164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Shintaro Imai49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3092554.8%507 W · 418 L+15.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…4cc3backed Shunsuke Mitsui38c59.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.882853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed Shintaro Imai49c59.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.756759.7%40 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shunsuke Mitsui35c58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.544,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Shintaro Imai49c57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.931,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Shintaro Imai54c56.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9746435.3%164 W · 300 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e76…dd6bbacked Shintaro Imai44c55.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shintaro Imai58c54.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.888,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Shunsuke Mitsui53c54.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ad…5097backed Shunsuke Mitsui36c53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6926868.3%183 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Shunsuke Mitsui60c50.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2530268.9%208 W · 94 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Shunsuke Mitsui56c45.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9178857.1%450 W · 338 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shintaro Imai49c45.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.226,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x162d…9155backed Shunsuke Mitsui57c42.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.22065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Shunsuke Mitsui52c42.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0826253.8%141 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e37…5bdbbacked Shunsuke Mitsui61c40.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7319852.5%104 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0a…b267backed Shintaro Imai65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2613053.8%70 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Shintaro Imai49c38.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6627724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shintaro Imai48c37.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.112,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…47f5backed Shintaro Imai62c36.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.86141%25 W · 36 L-7.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb663…f135backed Shunsuke Mitsui55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3656337.3%210 W · 353 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Shunsuke Mitsui47c35.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9560452.5%317 W · 287 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe117…1b4bbacked Shunsuke Mitsui56c35.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.422065%13 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4490…20dcbacked Shintaro Imai53c35.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Shunsuke Mitsui46c33.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.121,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shintaro Imai49c33.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.347,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f05…ccc2backed Shunsuke Mitsui46c32.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+177.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Shintaro Imai55c32.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9e…41b5backed Shunsuke Mitsui59c30.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa122…9847backed Shintaro Imai49c30.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Shunsuke Mitsui63c29.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.811,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Shunsuke Mitsui53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Shintaro Imai54c28.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3837460.4%226 W · 148 L+29.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ba0…0111backed Shunsuke Mitsui51c26.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.065653.6%30 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8ad…2602backed Shintaro Imai46c25.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.714645.7%21 W · 25 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Shunsuke Mitsui54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0446453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Shintaro Imai61c23.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7139446.7%184 W · 210 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fc…eba1backed Shintaro Imai66c23.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5512467.7%84 W · 40 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Shintaro Imai48c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6562140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked Shintaro Imai60c21.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.787851.3%40 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Shintaro Imai51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.224052.5%126 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shunsuke Mitsui75c18.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.648,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.