WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Lynx
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a10b321e803ad7df71bf11ef17094bc1870283477dfaa4e21daaae79d5ae2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Mercury, Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 27c | 5,671$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.75 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Lynx | 78c | 5,561$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lynx | 62c | 3,551$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.67 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Lynx | 74c | 2,992$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lynx | 72c | 2,448$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.36 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd666…a3fbbacked Mercury | 54c | 2,200$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mercury | 23c | 2,099$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.71 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mercury | 48c | 2,050$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.25 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Lynx | 72c | 2,018$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.33 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed Mercury | 28c | 1,607$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Lynx | 68c | 1,500$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Mercury | 24c | 1,418$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mercury | 26c | 1,156$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.3 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Mercury | 27c | 1,056$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Lynx | 74c | 1,002$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mercury | 26c | 881.66$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lynx | 74c | 880.74$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Lynx | 74c | 704.7$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lynx | 75c | 502.31$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Lynx | 71c | 501.28$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Mercury | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Lynx | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2017backed Mercury | 45c | 492.05$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Lynx | 74c | 395.4$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Mercury | 25c | 380$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Mercury | 4c | 365$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Mercury | 28c | 351.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Mercury | 25c | 348.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mercury | 25c | 341$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Lynx | 66c | 325.28$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Lynx | 74c | 306$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Mercury | 37c | 300$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Lynx | 69c | 296.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…d03cbacked Lynx | 76c | 255.92$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…e78cbacked Mercury | 25c | 255.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…6e2abacked Mercury | 26c | 218.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Lynx | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Mercury | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Lynx | 72c | 163.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…f2e2backed Lynx | 74c | 136.46$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…5862backed Mercury | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…ab08backed Lynx | 64c | 121.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Mercury | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Lynx | 46c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Mercury | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mercury | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Mercury | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Mercury | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Mercury | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…ed4fbacked Mercury | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Mercury | 32c | 94.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…278cbacked Mercury | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…6c32backed Lynx | 75c | 81.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…9f33backed Mercury | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Lynx | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Mercury | 37c | 75.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…8a2ebacked Lynx | 75c | 70.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb5…5f2cbacked Mercury | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Lynx | 73c | 61.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Lynx | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…5dc4backed Mercury | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…8af2backed Lynx | 75c | 49.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Mercury | 26c | 45.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Lynx | 54c | 43.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Lynx | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8ebfbacked Mercury | 26c | 42.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mercury | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Lynx | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0463…d029backed Lynx | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Lynx | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…9ec6backed Mercury | 34c | 32.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Mercury | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…9e97backed Lynx | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Lynx | 49c | 21.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…aa14backed Lynx | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Lynx | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Lynx | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…d15abacked Lynx | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2e…af91backed Lynx | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.