NFL · resolved market
Chiefs vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a906c8fb2790d2e62bc45c545e90b322c83bfb93066b0e414a08d462ac72f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 45c | 55,039$24,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,867.99 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 56c | 34,873$19,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,192.29 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 55c | 27,513$15,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,380.85 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Under | 45c | 25,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 55c | 16,015$8,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,208.15 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Under | 47c | 15,000$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5720…6b19backed Under | 43c | 11,628$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 50c | 7,989$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,994.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 54c | 7,598$4,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,523.18 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 5,569$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.74 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 5,069$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.74 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Under | 45c | 2,499$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.72 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 43c | 1,770$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Over | 58c | 1,531$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 1,180$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 57c | 999.77$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.9 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 55c | 764$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 43c | 750$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…c6c8backed Over | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 42c | 356$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…381cbacked Over | 39c | 350$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 53c | 297.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Over | 57c | 268.25$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Under | 47c | 242.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 45c | 224.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…da5dbacked Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Over | 53c | 198.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 55c | 182.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…9e5abacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 53c | 161.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 45c | 141.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…9a9cbacked Under | 55c | 127.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…3816backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 58c | 43.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Under | 47c | 34.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Under | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chiefs vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5this page
- Chiefs vs. ChargersChargers won
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.