NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cea99a5462344edb5d18810dcb3216378c6bcf41f6bc7e21b11ff9f348175e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chiefs, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Chiefs | 48c | 127,366$61,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,440.07 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Chiefs | 48c | 100,000$47,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,626.28 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chargers | 52c | 89,879$47,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,761.96 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Chargers | 52c | 36,929$19,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,626.63 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Chargers | 53c | 33,954$17,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,063.23 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chargers | 50c | 32,040$16,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,911.27 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Chiefs | 47c | 30,079$14,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,122.87 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Chargers | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,099.99 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Chargers | 53c | 12,535$6,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,891.45 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Chargers | 54c | 10,915$5,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,021.1 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Chargers | 51c | 10,350$5,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,035.27 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Chiefs | 46c | 10,007$4,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,603.2 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Chargers | 52c | 10,000$5,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,821.49 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Chargers | 53c | 6,317$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.11 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Chargers | 51c | 3,798$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.45 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Chargers | 53c | 3,053$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.59 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Chiefs | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Chargers | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Chargers | 53c | 2,387$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.89 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Chiefs | 47c | 2,364$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed Chargers | 53c | 2,227$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.68 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Chargers | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Chargers | 52c | 1,951$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.53 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Chiefs | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…aee2backed Chiefs | 48c | 1,360$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…fbb5backed Chargers | 54c | 1,105$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Chargers | 53c | 1,085$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.95 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chargers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Chargers | 53c | 986.79$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.79 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed Chiefs | 45c | 973$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Chargers | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Chargers | 54c | 547.42$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.81 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Chiefs | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Chargers | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Chiefs | 48c | 431.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…c6c8backed Chiefs | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Chiefs | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Chargers | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Chargers | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Chiefs | 46c | 269.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Chiefs | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Chargers | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Chargers | 53c | 250$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Chiefs | 47c | 244.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…27c8backed Chiefs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…85f4backed Chiefs | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Chiefs | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Chiefs | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Chargers | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Chiefs | 46c | 190$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…a70abacked Chargers | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Chargers | 51c | 183.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Chargers | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Chargers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chiefs | 48c | 142.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Chiefs | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Chargers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Chiefs | 48c | 97.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47b…7e38backed Chargers | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Chargers | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Chargers | 54c | 73.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Chiefs | 47c | 55.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Chiefs | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…b14cbacked Chargers | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Chargers | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x887c…e405backed Chiefs | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Chiefs | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…6aaabacked Chiefs | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Chargers | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Chargers | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Chiefs | 48c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chiefs | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Chargers | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…fda4backed Chargers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Chargers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. ChargersChargers won
- Chiefs vs. Chargers: O/U 45.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.