Champions League · resolved market
Will PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad11390f091fab074e692795070830c4b0d0508a30f85f0d855f97f6a4d3403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 32c | 7,500$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,127.9 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 7,022$4,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.17 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 36c | 6,875$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.09 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 68c | 5,760$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,916.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,455$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.84 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 60c | 3,294$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.7 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 1,964$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.34 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…c58bbacked No | 69c | 1,220$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 68c | 1,182$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.44 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 1,139$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.84 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 3c | 1,017$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 91 | 19.8%18 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 69c | 999.96$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 68c | 929.2$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.86 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414f…2f42backed Yes | 31c | 920.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +180%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 71c | 810.36$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.36 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 36c | 793.1$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…accbbacked No | 70c | 747$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 70c | 738.11$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.68 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…edf8backed No | 69c | 664$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 54c | 655.81$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.86 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 31c | 544.43$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 506.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.44 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 499.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.99 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 455.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.13 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 44c | 444.32$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.33 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 38c | 423.91$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 32c | 395.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 331.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.07 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 67c | 318.42$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…8d12backed No | 49c | 306.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 58c | 248.89$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 43c | 207.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked No | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 192.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 163.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 66c | 161.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 68c | 152.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 32c | 146.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 69c | 143$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 34c | 119.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 68c | 113$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 54 | 75.9%41 W · 13 L | +10.4wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7812…4bcdbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…a687backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +135%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 70c | 92.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 69c | 89.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…3d5dbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 67c | 66.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc1…0f58backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 31c | 62.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Yes | 35c | 61.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 46c | 52.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…d4dabacked No | 55c | 49.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked No | 55c | 45.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Yes | 31c | 38.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Yes | 29c | 37.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 51c | 37.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 59c | 37.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed No | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607a…4aeabacked No | 62c | 32.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Yes | 68c | 28.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 62c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked Yes | 67c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9252…9a87backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK win on 2026-08-18?No won
- Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.