TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
K27of K27, 100 Thieves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 384 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked K2745c55,683$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,683.575,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 100 Thieves54c33,000$17,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,82076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked K2746c30,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,2005444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed K2744c17,924$7,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,066.622,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked 100 Thieves54c17,370$9,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,383.1383652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed K2746c15,268$6,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,291.868043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked K2744c11,143$4,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,251.4318550.8%94 W · 91 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed 100 Thieves55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.9217951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked K2758c9,013$5,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,802.0263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked 100 Thieves55c8,200$4,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,543.829044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed 100 Thieves54c7,054$3,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.8123848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed 100 Thieves55c6,380$3,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.1513244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 100 Thieves39c6,165$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.961,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed 100 Thieves57c6,113$3,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.9966851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed 100 Thieves54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed K2747c5,490$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,914.5717249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed 100 Thieves56c5,275$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.037354.8%40 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed K2754c4,398$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.936,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed 100 Thieves57c4,300$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4519551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed K2760c4,177$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.341,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…369bbacked 100 Thieves60c3,494$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.231266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked 100 Thieves37c3,203$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1854731.9%15 W · 32 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed K2761c2,773$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.227353.4%39 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+139.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed K2746c2,489$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.8750051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked 100 Thieves49c2,430$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.351,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed 100 Thieves56c2,321$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ab…bf47backed 100 Thieves57c2,258$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 100 Thieves33c2,254$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.842,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked 100 Thieves53c2,210$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.362030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked K2746c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.915565.5%36 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed 100 Thieves56c2,100$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.9930153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 100 Thieves55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.981,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d6…c4adbacked 100 Thieves56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.962638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-33.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked 100 Thieves57c1,947$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1106243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked K2763c1,916$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.8735745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed K2746c1,838$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.4322049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed K2744c1,829$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.572,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked 100 Thieves42c1,749$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.052,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed 100 Thieves55c1,713$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9423050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa2…6df9backed 100 Thieves56c1,564$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.7916245.7%74 W · 88 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked K2764c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.187,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked K2746c1,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81010058%58 W · 42 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed K2761c1,484$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.960853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed K2741c1,484$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.164,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed 100 Thieves55c1,454$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9913732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed 100 Thieves58c1,379$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80157641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked K2743c1,336$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.922,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked 100 Thieves54c1,330$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.225344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked 100 Thieves59c1,305$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.25442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 100 Thieves39c1,283$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.753,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed 100 Thieves56c1,273$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71310249%50 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed 100 Thieves56c1,272$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.4536749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 100 Thieves56c1,270$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.129449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed 100 Thieves48c1,260$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed 100 Thieves35c1,100$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.849040%36 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed K2761c1,070$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.0137145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked K2754c1,029$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.1262738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked K2767c1,001$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.815,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed K2760c1,000$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4035044%22 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed 100 Thieves1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed 100 Thieves56c999.99$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.9925145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed K2745c999.96$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9857641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked 100 Thieves56c982.84$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9913234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed 100 Thieves56c978.57$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54822044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed K2739c963.89$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.392642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+53.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked 100 Thieves46c899.98$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9919546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed K2741c899.98$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.4955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 100 Thieves36c861.01$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.825,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked 100 Thieves48c822.04$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.671,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 100 Thieves41c800$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.52,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked 100 Thieves56c749.98$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.997250%36 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed 100 Thieves8c716.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed K2762c716.11$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.568659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked 100 Thieves56c710$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.625651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed K2744c705.85$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.571,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed K2742c699.98$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.9926155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed 100 Thieves56c692.88$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.0120946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked K2744c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.8213351.1%68 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed 100 Thieves54c675.71$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.736446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed K2760c643.88$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.6918261.5%112 W · 70 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked 100 Thieves55c643.85$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.099732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b0e…bd73backed 100 Thieves57c630$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.14944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked 100 Thieves38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22820944.5%93 W · 116 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed 100 Thieves55c595.77$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.429141.8%38 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b56…6b74backed 100 Thieves55c574.06$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.7320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed 100 Thieves55c550.99$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0431241.3%129 W · 183 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x299e…31a6backed 100 Thieves50c546.58$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked 100 Thieves55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30054543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed 100 Thieves52c539.99$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0239038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed K2746c526.08$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.0812552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked 100 Thieves48c525.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3333060.9%201 W · 129 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd976…7636backed 100 Thieves69c506.38$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34811155%61 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed 100 Thieves55c504.99$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4432139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 100 Thieves50c503.81$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.232,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked 100 Thieves60c501.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed K2744c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2805,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed 100 Thieves57c500$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.2338052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad0…6187backed 100 Thieves55c499.96$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.983333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ccc…77abbacked 100 Thieves62c484.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-59.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked K2740c471.7$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.0258343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.